Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what TMP is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$617.67
Method range
$52.31 – $617.67
median $84.30
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $617.67 | +606.63% |
| Exit multiple | $94.61 | +8.23% |
| Analyst target | $74.00 | -15.34% |
| Graham number | $52.31 | -40.16% |
- Forward DCF$617.67
- Exit multiple$94.61
- Analyst target$74.00
- Graham number$52.31
Stock price
$87.41
FCF / share (TTM)
$4.99
3Y FCF CAGR
-27.2%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$11.70
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
2.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -646.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-27.2%
Your model implies
2.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -27% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | -0.9% | -1.8% | -2.8% | -3.9% | -5.2% |
| 7.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | -0.1% | -0.9% | -1.9% |
| 8.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| 9.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% |
| 10.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$527M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.74
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Tompkins Financial (TMP) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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