Tapestry (TPR) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.24), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TPR sits noticeably below the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 4, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.24in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.24 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.61% | -0.14pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.94% | +0.73pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 17 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.40 |
| Per-event yield | 0.27% |
| Annualized yield | 1.14% |
| Previously paid | Mar 6, 2026 ($0.40) |
| Last record date | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 23, 2026 |
TPR Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Tapestry (TPR). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.40 | -2.19% | $149.60 | 3 | yes | yes | -8.24% | -4.75% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -0.18% | $115.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.58% | +7.43% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.09% | $105.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.99% | +0.99% | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | -0.34% | $79.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.72% | +0.05% | |
| Q1 | $0.35 | -1.60% | $81.28 | >30 | no | no | -16.24% | -13.80% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | 0.27% | $63.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.90% | -0.03% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | -0.85% | $41.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.09% | +4.23% | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | -1.24% | $43.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.20% | -3.19% | |
| Q1 | $0.35 | 0.04% | $46.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.83% | +1.51% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | -0.46% | $32.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.74% | +13.38% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | -2.02% | $32.60 | >30 | no | no | -8.01% | -3.74% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -1.41% | $43.30 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.45% | +1.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -0.49% | $43.13 | 17 | no | yes | -7.84% | -3.87% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | 0.60% | $36.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.43% | +2.31% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | -1.94% | $34.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.34% | -2.78% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | 0.88% | $34.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.04% | +1.32% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | -0.58% | $41.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -23.31% | -13.37% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | 0.72% | $38.88 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.28% | +11.88% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | -0.79% | $40.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.42% | -0.15% | |
| Q1 | $0.34 | -5.10% | $24.33 | >30 | no | no | -55.40% | -36.92% |
- -4.75%
- +7.43%
- +0.99%
- +0.05%
- -13.80%
- -0.03%
- +4.23%
- -3.19%
- +1.51%
- +13.38%
- -3.74%
- +1.02%
- -3.87%
- +2.31%
- -2.78%
- +1.32%
- -13.37%
- +11.88%
- -0.15%
- -36.92%
TPR Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 3 | 15% |
TPR Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with TPR's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $80.00
- After-tax dividend
- $52.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$29.92
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$22.08
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.07%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~3.7%
TPR Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical TPR ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TPR (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -36.92% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +0.82% | |
| -3.87% | |
| +0.69% | |
| -3.74% | |
| +1.08% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.55% | |
| -13.80% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.27% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.