TSCO dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Tractor Supply (TSCO) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.70), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TSCO sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 26, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.70
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.70 | +0.49 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.15% | +0.27pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.97% | +0.53pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 16 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
Dividend
$0.24
Per-event yield
0.81%
Annualized yield
3.06%
Previously paid
May 27, 2026 ($0.24)
Last record date
May 27, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 9, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Tractor Supply (TSCO). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.24 | -0.13% | $29.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.83% | -1.41% | |
| Q1 | $0.24 | -0.33% | $53.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.29% | -3.80% | |
| Q4 | $0.23 | 1.23% | $52.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.64% | +1.00% | |
| Q3 | $0.23 | -0.24% | $61.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.04% | +0.23% | |
| Q2 | $0.23 | -0.50% | $50.38 | 7 | no | yes | -6.23% | -1.61% | |
| Q1 | $0.23 | -0.05% | $57.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.56% | -3.21% | |
| Q4 | $1.10 | 1.01% | $56.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.05% | +3.12% | |
| Q3 | $1.10 | 0.15% | $53.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.37% | +1.73% | |
| Q2 | $1.10 | -0.11% | $56.65 | 4 | yes | yes | -7.27% | -3.60% | |
| Q1 | $1.10 | 0.10% | $47.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.23% | +7.59% | |
| Q4 | $1.03 | 0.10% | $39.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.73% | +8.44% | |
| Q3 | $1.03 | 0.40% | $42.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.33% | +6.61% | |
| Q2 | $1.03 | -1.31% | $42.77 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.95% | -0.54% | |
| Q1 | $1.03 | -0.84% | $46.60 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.99% | +0.99% | |
| Q4 | $0.92 | 1.26% | $42.98 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.33% | +5.40% | |
| Q3 | $0.92 | -0.76% | $41.04 | 16 | no | yes | -10.84% | -4.65% | |
| Q2 | $0.92 | -1.89% | $35.37 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.85% | +10.40% | |
| Q1 | $0.92 | -0.86% | $43.01 | 2 | yes | yes | -13.21% | -4.56% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -0.26% | $45.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.16% | +0.02% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | 0.03% | $38.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.49% | +0.03% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with TSCO's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical TSCO ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+1.17%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
+23.43%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+16.21%
Best event
+2.60%
Worst event
-4.65%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TSCO (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.33% | |
| +1.13% | |
| +2.14% | |
| +2.60% | |
| -4.65% | |
| +2.14% | |
| +2.21% | |
| +2.41% | |
| +2.43% | |
| +2.60% | |
| +2.29% | |
| +1.94% | |
| +2.04% | |
| +1.95% | |
| +0.40% | |
| -1.61% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.81% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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