Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what TSCO is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$63.51
Method range
$5.80 – $63.51
median $51.75
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $63.51 | +113.26% |
| Exit multiple | $49.43 | +65.98% |
| Analyst target | $54.07 | +81.56% |
| Graham number | $5.80 | -80.54% |
- Forward DCF$63.51
- Exit multiple$49.43
- Analyst target$54.07
- Graham number$5.80
Stock price
$29.78
EPS (TTM)
$1.54
5Y EPS CAGR
10.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$63.51
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
0.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 53.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
10.1%
Your model implies
0.7%
Next-year analyst consensus
38.3%
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.1% | -3.1% | -4.3% | -5.7% | -7.5% | -9.7% |
| 6.1% | -0.2% | -1.1% | -2.2% | -3.4% | -4.9% |
| 7.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | -0.3% | -1.4% |
| 8.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| 9.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$5.7B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.50
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
Tractor Supply (TSCO) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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