Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.19), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TXRH sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 1, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.19in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.19 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.41% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.60% | in line with sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 30 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.75 |
| Per-event yield | 0.44% |
| Annualized yield | 1.67% |
| Previously paid | Mar 17, 2026 ($0.75) |
| Last record date | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 31, 2026 |
TXRH Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Texas Roadhouse (TXRH). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.75 | 0.21% | $171.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.21% | -1.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.68 | -0.11% | $170.91 | 12 | no | yes | -3.74% | -3.09% | |
| Q3 | $0.68 | -1.10% | $172.55 | 30 | no | yes | -5.56% | -2.17% | |
| Q2 | $0.68 | -0.56% | $194.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.91% | -2.48% | |
| Q1 | $0.68 | -0.84% | $171.95 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.02% | +3.62% | |
| Q4 | $0.61 | -0.02% | $192.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.34% | -2.54% | |
| Q3 | $0.61 | -0.17% | $166.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.15% | -1.87% | |
| Q2 | $0.61 | 0.25% | $169.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.58% | +0.25% | |
| Q1 | $0.61 | -0.07% | $148.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.07% | +4.07% | |
| Q4 | $0.55 | -0.50% | $114.41 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.35% | +1.20% | |
| Q3 | $0.55 | -0.51% | $104.75 | >30 | no | no | -4.62% | -3.15% | |
| Q2 | $0.55 | -1.04% | $111.08 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.81% | +0.40% | |
| Q1 | $0.55 | -0.26% | $104.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.88% | +0.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | -0.20% | $96.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.44% | +1.95% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -1.44% | $87.47 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.79% | +1.69% | |
| Q2 | $0.46 | -1.55% | $80.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -14.75% | -11.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.46 | 0.10% | $71.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.35% | +10.67% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | 0.50% | $87.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.58% | -2.41% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.51% | $93.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.57% | -2.38% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | 0.13% | $99.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.43% | -2.04% |
- -1.50%
- -3.09%
- -2.17%
- -2.48%
- +3.62%
- -2.54%
- -1.87%
- +0.25%
- +4.07%
- +1.20%
- -3.15%
- +0.40%
- +0.28%
- +1.95%
- +1.69%
- -11.02%
- +10.67%
- -2.41%
- -2.38%
- -2.04%
TXRH Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
TXRH Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with TXRH's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $150.00
- After-tax dividend
- $97.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$34.25
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$63.25
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.18%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~9.3%
TXRH Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical TXRH ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TXRH (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.40% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.50% | |
| -3.15% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.35% | |
| -2.17% | |
| -3.09% | |
| +0.44% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.