Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what TXRH is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$9,894.66
Method range
$31.14 – $9,894.66
median $175.97
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $9,894.66 | +5,704.68% |
| Exit multiple | $160.48 | -5.86% |
| Analyst target | $191.46 | +12.32% |
| Graham number | $31.14 | -81.73% |
- Forward DCF$9,894.66
- Exit multiple$160.48
- Analyst target$191.46
- Graham number$31.14
Stock price
$170.46
FCF / share (TTM)
$2.71
3Y FCF CAGR
9.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$78.45
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
19.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -117.3% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
9.6%
Your model implies
19.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 10% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | 16.0% | 15.0% | 13.8% | 12.5% | 11.0% |
| 7.6% | 18.8% | 17.9% | 17.0% | 15.9% | 14.8% |
| 8.6% | 21.3% | 20.6% | 19.8% | 18.9% | 18.0% |
| 9.6% | 23.7% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 21.6% | 20.8% |
| 10.6% | 25.9% | 25.4% | 24.7% | 24.1% | 23.4% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.48
Low vs growth
Net debt
$1.8B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.81
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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