USB dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
U.S. Bancorp (USB) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.46), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, USB sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 29, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.46
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.46 | +0.16 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.79% | -0.20pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 70% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.15% | +1.25pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 6 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
Dividend
$0.52
Per-event yield
0.85%
Annualized yield
3.44%
Previously paid
Jun 30, 2026 ($0.52)
Last record date
Jun 30, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 15, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for U.S. Bancorp (USB). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.52 | -1.29% | $61.28 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.76% | +0.39% | |
| Q1 | $0.52 | 0.59% | $50.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.31% | +9.83% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -0.68% | $54.31 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.43% | +3.20% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | -0.96% | $48.99 | 5 | yes | yes | -7.68% | -1.98% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -0.79% | $45.76 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.86% | +5.24% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | -2.06% | $42.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -16.75% | -11.74% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -0.60% | $48.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.49% | +1.60% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -0.46% | $45.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.49% | -1.12% | |
| Q2 | $0.49 | -0.35% | $39.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.99% | +0.68% | |
| Q1 | $0.49 | -0.53% | $43.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.81% | -0.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.49 | -1.16% | $43.94 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.30% | +0.82% | |
| Q3 | $0.48 | -1.29% | $32.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.81% | -0.52% | |
| Q2 | $0.48 | -0.43% | $32.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.90% | +5.26% | |
| Q1 | $0.48 | -0.11% | $36.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.80% | +0.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.48 | -0.88% | $43.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.20% | +7.94% | |
| Q3 | $0.48 | -2.17% | $41.42 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.83% | +0.34% | |
| Q2 | $0.46 | -0.81% | $46.89 | 6 | no | yes | -4.80% | +0.70% | |
| Q1 | $0.46 | -0.32% | $56.87 | >30 | no | no | -11.15% | -6.05% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | -0.72% | $56.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.20% | +6.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -0.70% | $60.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.72% | +2.47% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with USB's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical USB ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.73%
Win rate (20 trades)
95%
Cumulative P&L
+14.56%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+16.17%
Best event
+1.49%
Worst event
-6.05%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · USB (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.76% | |
| +0.81% | |
| -6.05% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +1.16% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +1.33% | |
| +1.49% | |
| +1.48% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +1.13% | |
| +1.23% | |
| +1.10% | |
| +1.04% | |
| +1.18% | |
| +1.09% | |
| +1.06% | |
| +0.96% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +0.85% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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