U.S. Bancorp (USB) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.46), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, USB sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Jul 1, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.46+0.15 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.46 | +0.15 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.75% | -0.18pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.06% | +0.32pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 6 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.52 |
| Per-event yield | 1.02% |
| Annualized yield | 3.96% |
| Previously paid | Mar 31, 2026 ($0.52) |
| Last record date | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 15, 2026 |
USB Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for U.S. Bancorp (USB). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.52 | 0.59% | $50.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.31% | +9.83% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -0.68% | $54.31 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.43% | +3.20% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | -0.96% | $48.99 | 5 | yes | yes | -7.67% | -1.98% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -0.79% | $45.76 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.86% | +5.24% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | -2.06% | $42.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -16.75% | -11.74% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -0.60% | $48.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.49% | +1.60% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -0.46% | $45.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.49% | -1.12% | |
| Q2 | $0.49 | -0.35% | $39.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.99% | +0.68% | |
| Q1 | $0.49 | -0.53% | $43.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.81% | -0.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.49 | -1.16% | $43.94 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.30% | +0.82% | |
| Q3 | $0.48 | -1.29% | $32.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.81% | -0.52% | |
| Q2 | $0.48 | -0.43% | $32.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.90% | +5.26% | |
| Q1 | $0.48 | -0.11% | $36.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.80% | +0.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.48 | -0.88% | $43.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.20% | +7.94% | |
| Q3 | $0.48 | -2.17% | $41.42 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.83% | +0.34% | |
| Q2 | $0.46 | -0.81% | $46.89 | 6 | no | yes | -4.80% | +0.70% | |
| Q1 | $0.46 | -0.32% | $56.87 | >30 | no | no | -11.15% | -6.05% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | -0.72% | $56.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.20% | +6.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -0.70% | $60.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.72% | +2.47% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | -0.63% | $57.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.99% | -1.96% |
- +9.83%
- +3.20%
- -1.98%
- +5.24%
- -11.74%
- +1.60%
- -1.12%
- +0.68%
- -0.28%
- +0.82%
- -0.52%
- +5.26%
- +0.03%
- +7.94%
- +0.34%
- +0.70%
- -6.05%
- +6.91%
- +2.47%
- -1.96%
USB Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
USB Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with USB's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $104.00
- After-tax dividend
- $67.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$10.18
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$57.42
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.56%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~28.4%
USB Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical USB ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · USB (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.73% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.81% | |
| -6.05% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +1.16% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +1.33% | |
| +1.49% | |
| +1.48% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +1.13% | |
| +1.23% | |
| +1.10% | |
| +1.04% | |
| +1.18% | |
| +1.09% | |
| +1.06% | |
| +0.96% | |
| +1.02% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.