Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what USB is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$107.01
Method range
$34.53 – $107.01
median $57.84
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $107.01 | +92.15% |
| Exit multiple | $51.85 | -6.89% |
| Analyst target | $63.82 | +14.60% |
| Graham number | $34.53 | -38.00% |
- Forward DCF$107.01
- Exit multiple$51.85
- Analyst target$63.82
- Graham number$34.53
Stock price
$55.69
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.86
3Y FCF CAGR
-6.2%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$6.63
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
22.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -740.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-6.2%
Your model implies
22.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -6% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | 19.3% | 18.4% | 17.5% | 16.4% | 15.3% |
| 8.6% | 21.8% | 21.1% | 20.3% | 19.4% | 18.5% |
| 9.6% | 24.2% | 23.5% | 22.8% | 22.1% | 21.3% |
| 10.6% | 26.4% | 25.8% | 25.2% | 24.6% | 23.9% |
| 11.6% | 28.5% | 28.0% | 27.5% | 26.9% | 26.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$31.0B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.02
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
U.S. Bancorp (USB) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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