AFG dividend capture — median 2d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
American Financial Group (AFG) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.47), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AFG sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 29, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
2d
Signal-to-noise
0.47
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.47 | +0.17 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.97% | -0.39pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.92% | +1.48pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 17 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
Dividend
$0.88
Per-event yield
0.62%
Annualized yield
5.09%
Previously paid
Jul 15, 2026 ($0.88)
Last record date
Jul 15, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 24, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for American Financial Group (AFG). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $0.88 | -1.98% | $141.15 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.13% | +0.10% | |
| Q2 | $0.88 | -0.81% | $130.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.90% | +0.41% | |
| Q1 | $1.50 | -1.16% | $129.00 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.74% | +1.64% | |
| Q1 | $0.88 | 1.24% | $131.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.36% | -2.40% | |
| Q4 | $2.00 | -1.19% | $142.44 | >30 | no | no | -5.20% | -2.97% | |
| Q4 | $0.88 | -1.37% | $140.80 | 17 | no | yes | -7.68% | -5.31% | |
| Q3 | $0.80 | -1.16% | $128.38 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.82% | +0.72% | |
| Q2 | $0.80 | -0.16% | $128.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.15% | +0.59% | |
| Q1 | $2.00 | -2.12% | $127.26 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.92% | +2.09% | |
| Q1 | $0.80 | -0.45% | $131.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.87% | +2.81% | |
| Q4 | $4.00 | -2.63% | $142.01 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.92% | +5.96% | |
| Q4 | $0.80 | -0.54% | $137.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.92% | -3.08% | |
| Q3 | $0.71 | -0.36% | $126.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.00% | -0.34% | |
| Q2 | $0.71 | -0.66% | $129.06 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.62% | -0.38% | |
| Q1 | $2.50 | -1.85% | $122.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.85% | +4.56% | |
| Q1 | $0.71 | -0.32% | $118.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.28% | +1.24% | |
| Q4 | $1.50 | -0.72% | $108.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.08% | +2.20% | |
| Q4 | $0.71 | -0.61% | $110.65 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.91% | -0.76% | |
| Q3 | $0.63 | -1.35% | $117.35 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.74% | +2.59% | |
| Q2 | $0.63 | -1.24% | $122.31 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.91% | +1.10% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with AFG's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical AFG ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.43%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
+8.50%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+32.61%
Best event
+2.82%
Worst event
-5.31%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AFG (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.52% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +1.39% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +2.03% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +2.82% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +1.57% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.62% | |
| -5.31% | |
| -2.97% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +1.16% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.62% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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