Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AFG is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$235.53
Method range
$53.83 – $235.53
median $140.02
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $235.53 | +67.75% |
| Exit multiple | $140.05 | -0.26% |
| Analyst target | $140.00 | -0.29% |
| Graham number | $53.83 | -61.67% |
- Forward DCF$235.53
- Exit multiple$140.05
- Analyst target$140.00
- Graham number$53.83
Stock price
$140.41
FCF / share (TTM)
$5.49
3Y FCF CAGR
-2.2%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$74.47
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
5.9%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -88.6% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-2.2%
Your model implies
5.9%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -2% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% | -1.4% | -3.1% |
| 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% |
| 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% |
| 9.7% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 9.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$93M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.61
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
American Financial Group (AFG) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks0.95% TTM
- Dividend Profile5.00% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History3 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.