Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AFG is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$235.76
Method range
$53.83 – $235.76
median $146.38
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $235.76 | +77.99% |
| Exit multiple | $140.26 | +5.89% |
| Analyst target | $152.50 | +15.13% |
| Graham number | $53.83 | -59.36% |
- Forward DCF$235.76
- Exit multiple$140.26
- Analyst target$152.50
- Graham number$53.83
Stock price
$132.46
FCF / share (TTM)
$5.49
3Y FCF CAGR
-2.2%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$74.53
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
5.2%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -77.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-2.2%
Your model implies
5.2%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -2% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | -0.7% | -2.1% | -3.8% |
| 6.7% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% |
| 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% |
| 9.7% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 8.5% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$93M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.64
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
American Financial Group (AFG) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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