Assurant (AIZ) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 84% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.22), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AIZ sits noticeably below the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 3, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 84%-11pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.22-0.08 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 84% | -11pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.22 | -0.08 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.47% | +0.11pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.76% | +0.61pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 10 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.88 |
| Per-event yield | 0.40% |
| Annualized yield | 1.36% |
| Previously paid | Feb 17, 2026 ($0.88) |
| Last record date | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 30, 2026 |
AIZ Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Assurant (AIZ). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.88 | 0.68% | $217.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.56% | +2.87% | |
| Q4 | $0.88 | -0.44% | $228.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.78% | -2.42% | |
| Q3 | $0.80 | -0.70% | $215.61 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.74% | -1.72% | |
| Q2 | $0.80 | -0.23% | $203.47 | >30 | no | no | -4.32% | -1.31% | |
| Q1 | $0.80 | -1.47% | $215.19 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.91% | -0.86% | |
| Q4 | $0.80 | -0.60% | $224.22 | >30 | no | no | -7.51% | -2.72% | |
| Q3 | $0.72 | 0.02% | $196.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.95% | -1.97% | |
| Q2 | $0.72 | -0.67% | $173.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.78% | -2.67% | |
| Q1 | $0.72 | -0.35% | $169.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.85% | +3.49% | |
| Q4 | $0.72 | 0.38% | $163.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.43% | +3.10% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -0.16% | $140.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.01% | +0.24% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -0.85% | $125.15 | 6 | no | yes | -5.35% | -1.06% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -0.97% | $128.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.80% | -0.83% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | 0.46% | $127.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.74% | +1.68% | |
| Q3 | $0.68 | -0.33% | $165.77 | 10 | no | yes | -5.41% | -3.73% | |
| Q2 | $0.68 | -0.34% | $180.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.44% | +2.12% | |
| Q1 | $0.68 | 0.23% | $163.50 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.23% | +4.02% | |
| Q4 | $0.68 | -3.29% | $161.92 | >30 | no | no | -7.82% | -5.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.66 | -0.35% | $167.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.41% | +2.28% | |
| Q2 | $0.66 | -0.07% | $161.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.57% | +1.18% |
- +2.87%
- -2.42%
- -1.72%
- -1.31%
- -0.86%
- -2.72%
- -1.97%
- -2.67%
- +3.49%
- +3.10%
- +0.24%
- -1.06%
- -0.83%
- +1.68%
- -3.73%
- +2.12%
- +4.02%
- -5.56%
- +2.28%
- +1.18%
AIZ Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 3 | 15% |
AIZ Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with AIZ's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $176.00
- After-tax dividend
- $114.40
- Slippage round-trip
- -$43.50
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$70.90
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.16%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~8.2%
AIZ Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical AIZ ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AIZ (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.41% | |
| +0.39% | |
| -5.56% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.38% | |
| -3.73% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.55% | |
| -1.06% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.37% | |
| -2.72% | |
| +0.37% | |
| -1.31% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.40% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.