ALL dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 85% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Allstate (ALL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 85% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.30), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ALL sits noticeably below the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 31, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.08.
Touch rate (30d)
85%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.30
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 85% | -10pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.30 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.57% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 40% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.95% | +0.45pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 14 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$1.08
Per-event yield
0.52%
Annualized yield
1.61%
Previously paid
Jun 1, 2026 ($1.08)
Last record date
Jun 1, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 1, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Allstate (ALL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.08 | -1.54% | $206.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.88% | +4.86% | |
| Q1 | $1.08 | -0.47% | $214.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.36% | -2.68% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -0.15% | $212.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.44% | -5.22% | |
| Q3 | $1.00 | -0.20% | $203.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.83% | -1.20% | |
| Q2 | $1.00 | -0.94% | $208.06 | >30 | no | no | -8.20% | -3.58% | |
| Q1 | $1.00 | -1.05% | $200.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.94% | +5.17% | |
| Q4 | $0.92 | -0.15% | $208.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.19% | -1.75% | |
| Q3 | $0.92 | -0.47% | $188.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.85% | -0.12% | |
| Q2 | $0.92 | -0.25% | $164.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.97% | +0.61% | |
| Q1 | $0.92 | -0.66% | $159.52 | 7 | no | yes | -3.54% | -1.05% | |
| Q4 | $0.89 | -0.71% | $136.43 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.34% | +2.16% | |
| Q3 | $0.89 | -0.93% | $106.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.93% | +1.93% | |
| Q2 | $0.89 | -0.23% | $108.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.96% | +4.01% | |
| Q1 | $0.89 | -0.35% | $131.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.57% | -2.36% | |
| Q4 | $0.85 | -1.04% | $132.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.18% | -1.18% | |
| Q3 | $0.85 | -0.69% | $124.09 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.38% | +1.52% | |
| Q2 | $0.85 | -0.38% | $134.70 | >30 | no | no | -11.00% | -4.45% | |
| Q1 | $0.85 | 0.07% | $120.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.77% | +6.27% | |
| Q4 | $0.81 | -0.56% | $115.12 | 14 | no | yes | -7.83% | -3.94% | |
| Q3 | $0.81 | -0.68% | $137.51 | >30 | no | no | -4.78% | -3.80% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 3 | 15% |
Pre-filled with ALL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical ALL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.39%
Win rate (20 trades)
75%
Cumulative P&L
-7.83%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+64.08%
Best event
+0.84%
Worst event
-4.45%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ALL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -3.80% | |
| -3.94% | |
| +0.70% | |
| -4.45% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.65% | |
| -1.05% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.50% | |
| -3.58% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.52% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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