Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ALL is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$5,096.33
Method range
$161.18 – $5,096.33
median $229.39
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $5,096.33 | +2,205.93% |
| Exit multiple | $213.78 | -3.27% |
| Analyst target | $245.00 | +10.85% |
| Graham number | $161.18 | -27.07% |
- Forward DCF$5,096.33
- Exit multiple$213.78
- Analyst target$245.00
- Graham number$161.18
Stock price
$221.01
FCF / share (TTM)
$13.58
3Y FCF CAGR
23.7%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$2554.09
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
-5.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 91.3% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
23.7%
Your model implies
-5.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 24% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 7.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | -5.3% | -6.5% | -7.9% | -9.6% | -11.9% |
| 5.0% | -5.3% | -6.5% | -7.9% | -9.6% | -11.9% |
| 5.6% | -3.6% | -4.6% | -5.8% | -7.2% | -8.8% |
| 6.6% | -1.1% | -1.9% | -2.8% | -3.8% | -5.0% |
| 7.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | -0.2% | -1.0% | -1.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$6.8B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.21
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Allstate (ALL) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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