Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ALRS is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$3.18
Method range
$3.18 – $61.86
median $25.10
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $3.18 | -89.01% |
| Exit multiple | $61.86 | +113.66% |
| Analyst target | $28.75 | -0.69% |
| Graham number | $21.46 | -25.88% |
- Forward DCF$3.18
- Exit multiple$61.86
- Analyst target$28.75
- Graham number$21.46
Stock price
$28.95
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.02
3Y FCF CAGR
-27.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$2.34
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
7.9%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -1137.3% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-27.9%
Your model implies
7.9%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -28% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | -0.9% |
| 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% |
| 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% |
| 9.0% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% |
| 10.0% | 13.6% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 11.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$373M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.69
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Alerus Financial (ALRS) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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