ASML (ASML) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 94% of the last 18 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.07), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ASML sits roughly in line with the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Jul 28, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 94%-1pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.07-0.09 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 18 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 94% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.07 | -0.09 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.19% | +0.14pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.02% | -0.40pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 10 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $3.17 |
| Per-event yield | 0.22% |
| Annualized yield | 0.61% |
| Previously paid | Apr 27, 2026 ($3.17) |
| Last record date | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 5, 2026 |
ASML Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for ASML (ASML). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $3.17 | 0.01% | $1457.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.37% | -4.69% | |
| Q1 | $1.91 | 0.68% | $1429.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.27% | +2.88% | |
| Q4 | $1.86 | 1.73% | $1052.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.29% | -0.65% | |
| Q3 | $1.85 | -0.99% | $729.99 | 10 | no | yes | -6.37% | -5.28% | |
| Q2 | $2.09 | -0.75% | $677.27 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.81% | +1.21% | |
| Q1 | $1.57 | 0.08% | $744.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.40% | +0.31% | |
| Q4 | $1.64 | -0.13% | $708.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.60% | -4.31% | |
| Q3 | $1.64 | -0.16% | $888.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.62% | -7.47% | |
| Q2 | $1.87 | 1.08% | $902.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.91% | +0.11% | |
| Q1 | $1.56 | -0.57% | $890.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.07% | +4.50% | |
| Q4 | $1.53 | 0.14% | $598.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.34% | +7.02% | |
| Q3 | $1.59 | -0.69% | $716.41 | >30 | no | no | -9.45% | -4.95% | |
| Q2 | $1.84 | -0.29% | $636.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.31% | +3.14% | |
| Q1 | $1.27 | -2.02% | $679.62 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.74% | -1.41% | |
| Q4 | $1.14 | -1.24% | $446.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.06% | +25.90% | |
| Q3 | $1.19 | -0.12% | $583.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.58% | -3.47% | |
| Q2 | $3.31 | -0.78% | $571.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.78% | -7.78% | |
| Q4 | $1.77 | 0.60% | $807.45 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.38% | +5.50% | |
| Q2 | $1.87 | 1.48% | $648.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.38% | -2.93% | |
| Q4 | $1.41 | 0.91% | $361.21 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.14% | +12.88% |
- -4.69%
- +2.88%
- -0.65%
- -5.28%
- +1.21%
- +0.31%
- -4.31%
- -7.47%
- +0.11%
- +4.50%
- +7.02%
- -4.95%
- +3.14%
- -1.41%
- +25.90%
- -3.47%
- -7.78%
- +5.50%
- -2.93%
- +12.88%
ASML Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
ASML Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with ASML's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $634.00
- After-tax dividend
- $412.10
- Slippage round-trip
- -$291.54
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$120.56
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.04%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~2.1%
ASML Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical ASML ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ASML (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.39% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.29% | |
| -4.95% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.31% | |
| -5.28% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.22% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.