Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ASML is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,566.38
Method range
$112.44 – $2,305.75
median $1,403.00
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,566.38 | -13.07% |
| Exit multiple | $1,239.61 | -31.20% |
| Analyst target | $2,305.75 | +27.96% |
| Graham number | $112.44 | -93.76% |
- Forward DCF$1,566.38
- Exit multiple$1,239.61
- Analyst target$2,305.75
- Graham number$112.44
Stock price
$1,801.86
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.74
3Y FCF CAGR
2.0%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$40.58
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
58.5%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -4,340.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
2.0%
Your model implies
58.5%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 2% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.6% | 54.3% | 53.4% | 52.5% | 51.5% | 50.4% |
| 10.6% | 57.2% | 56.4% | 55.6% | 54.7% | 53.8% |
| 11.6% | 60.0% | 59.2% | 58.5% | 57.7% | 56.9% |
| 12.6% | 62.6% | 61.9% | 61.3% | 60.5% | 59.8% |
| 13.6% | 65.1% | 64.5% | 63.9% | 63.3% | 62.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
9.32
Demanding vs growth
Net cash
$10.2B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.39
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
ASML (ASML) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks0.59% TTM
- Dividend Profile0.49% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History5 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.