Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ASML is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,495.23
Method range
$107.75 – $1,694.00
median $1,272.45
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,495.23 | -8.92% |
| Exit multiple | $1,049.68 | -36.06% |
| Analyst target | $1,694.00 | +3.18% |
| Graham number | $107.75 | -93.44% |
- Forward DCF$1,495.23
- Exit multiple$1,049.68
- Analyst target$1,694.00
- Graham number$107.75
Stock price
$1641.74
EPS (TTM)
$25.87
5Y EPS CAGR
25.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$1495.23
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
27.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -9.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
25.6%
Your model implies
27.0%
Next-year analyst consensus
25.4%
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | 23.7% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 21.6% | 20.8% |
| 10.5% | 25.9% | 25.4% | 24.7% | 24.1% | 23.4% |
| 11.5% | 28.1% | 27.5% | 27.0% | 26.4% | 25.8% |
| 12.5% | 30.1% | 29.6% | 29.1% | 28.6% | 28.0% |
| 13.5% | 32.1% | 31.6% | 31.2% | 30.7% | 30.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net cash
$10.2B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.40
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
ASML (ASML) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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