Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what COP is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$171.51
Method range
$46.00 – $171.51
median $127.78
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $171.51 | +46.42% |
| Exit multiple | $122.63 | +4.69% |
| Analyst target | $132.92 | +13.47% |
| Graham number | $46.00 | -60.73% |
- Forward DCF$171.51
- Exit multiple$122.63
- Analyst target$132.92
- Graham number$46.00
Stock price
$117.14
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.51
3Y FCF CAGR
11.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$267.42
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
1.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 56.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
11.1%
Your model implies
1.4%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 11% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% | -1.8% | -4.3% |
| 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% | -1.8% | -4.3% |
| 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% | -0.3% | -2.5% |
| 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.3% |
| 7.3% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.35
Low vs growth
Net debt
$16.9B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.15
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
ConocoPhillips (COP) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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