Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what COP is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$172.41
Method range
$46.00 – $172.41
median $127.44
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $172.41 | +45.14% |
| Exit multiple | $114.30 | -3.78% |
| Analyst target | $140.58 | +18.34% |
| Graham number | $46.00 | -61.28% |
- Forward DCF$172.41
- Exit multiple$114.30
- Analyst target$140.58
- Graham number$46.00
Stock price
$118.79
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.10
3Y FCF CAGR
11.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$84.35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
15.2%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -40.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
11.1%
Your model implies
15.2%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 11% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 17.4% | 15.8% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 8.5% |
| 5.0% | 17.4% | 15.8% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 8.5% |
| 5.3% | 18.5% | 17.0% | 15.2% | 13.1% | 10.5% |
| 6.3% | 22.1% | 20.9% | 19.5% | 18.0% | 16.2% |
| 7.3% | 25.2% | 24.2% | 23.1% | 21.9% | 20.5% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.36
Low vs growth
Net debt
$16.9B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.12
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
ConocoPhillips (COP) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks2.80% TTM
- Dividend Profile2.78% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History4 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.