Community Trust Bancorp (CTBI) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.46), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CTBI sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 14, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.46+0.16 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.46 | +0.16 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.39% | +0.19pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.72% | -0.35pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 14 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $0.53 |
| Per-event yield | 0.90% |
| Annualized yield | 3.08% |
| Previously paid | Mar 13, 2026 ($0.53) |
| Last record date | Mar 15, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 1, 2026 |
CTBI Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Community Trust Bancorp (CTBI). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.53 | 0.20% | $59.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.13% | +0.15% | |
| Q4 | $0.53 | -0.75% | $60.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.67% | -1.28% | |
| Q3 | $0.53 | -0.49% | $56.91 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.74% | -0.30% | |
| Q2 | $0.47 | -2.09% | $52.19 | 7 | no | yes | -4.94% | +0.00% | |
| Q1 | $0.47 | 0.35% | $50.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.59% | +1.83% | |
| Q4 | $0.47 | -0.58% | $58.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.11% | -6.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.47 | 0.54% | $47.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.71% | +3.56% | |
| Q2 | $0.46 | -2.30% | $41.28 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.64% | +1.31% | |
| Q1 | $0.46 | -1.16% | $40.46 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.77% | +2.37% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | 0.75% | $43.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.57% | +1.98% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -0.17% | $35.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.14% | -3.31% | |
| Q2 | $0.44 | -1.05% | $39.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.64% | -5.92% | |
| Q1 | $0.44 | 3.81% | $39.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.50% | +1.76% | |
| Q4 | $0.44 | -1.06% | $47.15 | 14 | no | yes | -5.43% | -2.33% | |
| Q3 | $0.44 | -0.91% | $41.98 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.91% | +2.05% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | -0.97% | $40.14 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.59% | +2.64% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -0.07% | $42.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.66% | +0.66% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -0.74% | $43.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.61% | -0.62% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.69% | $40.61 | 9 | no | yes | -5.93% | -2.81% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | -0.44% | $43.24 | >30 | no | no | -8.05% | -3.92% |
- +0.15%
- -1.28%
- -0.30%
- +0.00%
- +1.83%
- -6.05%
- +3.56%
- +1.31%
- +2.37%
- +1.98%
- -3.31%
- -5.92%
- +1.76%
- -2.33%
- +2.05%
- +2.64%
- +0.66%
- -0.62%
- -2.81%
- -3.92%
CTBI Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 11 | 55% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
CTBI Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with CTBI's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $106.00
- After-tax dividend
- $68.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$11.81
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$57.09
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.48%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~24.4%
CTBI Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical CTBI ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CTBI (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -3.92% | |
| -2.81% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +1.00% | |
| +1.05% | |
| -2.33% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +1.29% | |
| +1.05% | |
| +1.14% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +0.98% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +0.00% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +0.88% | |
| +0.90% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.