DG dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Dollar General (DG) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.17), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, DG sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 6, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.17
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.17 | -0.21 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.53% | +0.12pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.96% | -0.97pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 24 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
Dividend
$0.59
Per-event yield
0.51%
Annualized yield
2.04%
Previously paid
Jul 7, 2026 ($0.59)
Last record date
Jul 7, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 21, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Dollar General (DG). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $0.59 | -0.74% | $116.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.64% | +3.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.59 | -0.99% | $125.01 | 8 | no | yes | -8.26% | -3.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.59 | 0.22% | $138.93 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.06% | +9.29% | |
| Q4 | $0.59 | -0.73% | $98.13 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.84% | +6.29% | |
| Q3 | $0.59 | -1.27% | $116.30 | 24 | no | yes | -7.70% | -2.14% | |
| Q2 | $0.59 | 1.01% | $92.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.95% | -3.26% | |
| Q1 | $0.59 | -0.26% | $75.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.42% | -8.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.59 | -0.66% | $84.30 | 20 | no | yes | -5.63% | -3.72% | |
| Q3 | $0.59 | -0.61% | $130.12 | 3 | yes | yes | -7.54% | -1.58% | |
| Q2 | $0.59 | -1.07% | $159.55 | >30 | no | no | -10.36% | -8.94% | |
| Q1 | $0.59 | -1.70% | $135.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.37% | +1.95% | |
| Q4 | $0.59 | -1.06% | $106.38 | 6 | no | yes | -4.97% | +5.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.59 | -0.34% | $169.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.95% | -4.49% | |
| Q2 | $0.59 | -0.68% | $212.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.68% | +0.79% | |
| Q4 | $0.55 | -0.27% | $248.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.70% | -2.58% | |
| Q4 | $0.55 | 0.89% | $239.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.65% | +0.13% | |
| Q3 | $0.55 | -0.88% | $245.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.04% | +3.66% | |
| Q2 | $0.55 | -0.30% | $226.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.61% | +6.64% | |
| Q1 | $0.42 | -0.64% | $235.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.49% | +0.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.42 | -0.42% | $209.21 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.59% | +0.48% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with DG's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical DG ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.39%
Win rate (20 trades)
80%
Cumulative P&L
-7.86%
Buy & hold (same sample)
-39.42%
Best event
+5.05%
Worst event
-8.94%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · DG (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.20% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +5.05% | |
| +0.43% | |
| -8.94% | |
| +0.45% | |
| -3.72% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.64% | |
| -2.14% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.42% | |
| -3.86% | |
| +0.51% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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