Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what DG is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$84.56
Method range
$42.66 – $138.88
median $111.22
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $84.56 | -29.68% |
| Exit multiple | $138.88 | +15.51% |
| Analyst target | $137.89 | +14.68% |
| Graham number | $42.66 | -64.52% |
- Forward DCF$84.56
- Exit multiple$138.88
- Analyst target$137.89
- Graham number$42.66
Stock price
$120.24
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.65
3Y FCF CAGR
9.2%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$87.55
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
13.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -37.3% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
9.2%
Your model implies
13.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 9% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 4.1% |
| 5.0% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 4.1% |
| 5.9% | 15.7% | 14.5% | 13.1% | 11.5% | 9.6% |
| 6.9% | 18.8% | 17.8% | 16.7% | 15.5% | 14.1% |
| 7.9% | 21.6% | 20.7% | 19.8% | 18.8% | 17.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
3.43
Demanding vs growth
Net debt
$14.6B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.25
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Dollar General (DG) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.