Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what DG is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$86.15
Method range
$42.66 – $138.41
median $111.68
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $86.15 | -16.92% |
| Exit multiple | $138.41 | +33.47% |
| Analyst target | $137.21 | +32.31% |
| Graham number | $42.66 | -58.86% |
- Forward DCF$86.15
- Exit multiple$138.41
- Analyst target$137.21
- Graham number$42.66
Stock price
$103.70
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.65
3Y FCF CAGR
9.2%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$89.65
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
11.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -15.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
9.2%
Your model implies
11.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 9% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 2.4% |
| 5.0% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 2.4% |
| 5.8% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 7.5% |
| 6.8% | 16.7% | 15.7% | 14.6% | 13.3% | 11.9% |
| 7.8% | 19.4% | 18.6% | 17.7% | 16.7% | 15.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
3.44
Demanding vs growth
Net debt
$14.6B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.26
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Dollar General (DG) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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