Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 91% of the last 11 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.82), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, FMCB sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 91%-4pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.82+0.52 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 11 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 91% | -4pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.82 | +0.52 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.16% | +0.42pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -1.66% | +2.72pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 2 | — |
Next ex-dividend
The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.
FMCB Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $5.10 | -0.43% | $1150.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.96% | -2.17% | |
| Q4 | $5.05 | -0.18% | $1081.00 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.98% | -0.09% | |
| Q3 | $5.00 | 0.00% | $1047.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.01% | -0.57% | |
| Q2 | $9.30 | -0.35% | $999.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.74% | +0.43% | |
| Q4 | $9.30 | 0.47% | $1055.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.08% | +1.78% | |
| Q2 | $8.80 | 0.00% | $985.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.42% | -0.03% | |
| Q4 | $8.80 | -0.62% | $961.00 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.87% | -0.02% | |
| Q2 | $8.30 | 0.00% | $983.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.43% | -1.58% | |
| Q4 | $8.30 | 0.00% | $980.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.41% | +3.81% | |
| Q2 | $7.85 | 0.00% | $930.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.84% | +0.31% | |
| Q4 | $7.80 | -0.61% | $984.96 | >30 | no | no | -4.06% | -1.44% | |
| Q2 | $7.50 | -0.23% | $875.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.34% | -0.49% | |
| Q4 | $7.50 | 0.41% | $733.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.87% | +0.78% | |
| Q2 | $7.25 | 0.50% | $710.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.99% | +0.95% | |
| Q4 | $7.15 | -0.87% | $799.96 | >30 | no | no | -2.92% | -0.98% | |
| Q2 | $7.05 | 0.00% | $845.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.10% | -4.96% | |
| Q4 | $7.00 | 0.28% | $710.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.27% | +0.00% | |
| Q2 | $6.90 | -0.71% | $700.00 | 4 | yes | yes | -0.71% | +0.99% | |
| Q4 | $6.80 | 0.00% | $674.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.93% | +1.24% | |
| Q2 | $6.75 | 0.00% | $610.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.44% | +2.75% |
- -2.17%
- -0.09%
- -0.57%
- +0.43%
- +1.78%
- -0.03%
- -0.02%
- -1.58%
- +3.81%
- +0.31%
- -1.44%
- -0.49%
- +0.78%
- +0.95%
- -0.98%
- -4.96%
- +0.00%
- +0.99%
- +1.24%
- +2.75%
FMCB Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
FMCB Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with FMCB's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $1070.00
- After-tax dividend
- $695.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$230.00
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$465.50
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.20%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~10.2%
FMCB Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical FMCB ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · FMCB (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.11% | |
| +1.01% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +0.83% | |
| -0.98% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +0.86% | |
| -1.44% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.88% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.44% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.