Home Depot (HD) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.27), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, HD sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 3, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.27+0.06 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.27 | +0.06 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.26% | +0.22pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.87% | +1.81pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 26 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $2.33 |
| Per-event yield | 0.66% |
| Annualized yield | 2.99% |
| Previously paid | Mar 12, 2026 ($2.33) |
| Last record date | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 26, 2026 |
HD Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Home Depot (HD). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $2.33 | -1.37% | $350.84 | 26 | no | yes | -8.72% | -5.79% | |
| Q4 | $2.30 | -0.45% | $357.91 | 6 | no | yes | -3.89% | +0.52% | |
| Q3 | $2.30 | 0.20% | $407.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.13% | +4.42% | |
| Q2 | $2.30 | -0.38% | $372.40 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.14% | -1.86% | |
| Q1 | $2.30 | -0.77% | $364.73 | 10 | no | yes | -5.34% | -1.89% | |
| Q4 | $2.25 | -0.21% | $429.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.92% | -0.17% | |
| Q3 | $2.25 | -0.02% | $372.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.05% | -2.79% | |
| Q2 | $2.25 | 0.11% | $325.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.61% | +2.28% | |
| Q1 | $2.25 | 0.02% | $378.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.53% | +0.74% | |
| Q4 | $2.09 | 0.23% | $313.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.52% | +4.74% | |
| Q3 | $2.09 | -0.42% | $329.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.54% | +0.34% | |
| Q2 | $2.09 | -0.96% | $292.40 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.25% | +3.90% | |
| Q1 | $2.09 | -0.43% | $290.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.20% | -0.22% | |
| Q4 | $1.90 | -0.96% | $315.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.41% | +1.93% | |
| Q3 | $1.90 | -0.37% | $293.10 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.80% | +2.97% | |
| Q2 | $1.90 | -0.33% | $302.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.64% | -1.10% | |
| Q1 | $1.90 | 1.03% | $316.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.52% | +5.07% | |
| Q4 | $1.65 | 0.37% | $400.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.63% | +3.07% | |
| Q3 | $1.65 | -0.19% | $326.18 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.81% | +2.22% | |
| Q2 | $1.65 | -0.26% | $316.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.05% | -2.31% |
- -5.79%
- +0.52%
- +4.42%
- -1.86%
- -1.89%
- -0.17%
- -2.79%
- +2.28%
- +0.74%
- +4.74%
- +0.34%
- +3.90%
- -0.22%
- +1.93%
- +2.97%
- -1.10%
- +5.07%
- +3.07%
- +2.22%
- -2.31%
HD Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
HD Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with HD's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $466.00
- After-tax dividend
- $302.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$70.17
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$232.73
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.33%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~16.7%
HD Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical HD ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · HD (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.52% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.52% | |
| -1.89% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.52% | |
| -5.79% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.