HD dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Home Depot (HD) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.27), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, HD sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 3, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.27
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.27 | +0.06 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.17% | +0.25pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.53% | +1.97pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 26 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
Dividend
$2.33
Per-event yield
0.74%
Annualized yield
2.99%
Previously paid
Jun 4, 2026 ($2.33)
Last record date
Jun 4, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 18, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Home Depot (HD). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $2.33 | 1.55% | $312.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.89% | +4.91% | |
| Q1 | $2.33 | -1.37% | $350.84 | 26 | no | yes | -8.72% | -5.79% | |
| Q4 | $2.30 | -0.45% | $357.91 | 6 | no | yes | -3.89% | +0.52% | |
| Q3 | $2.30 | 0.20% | $407.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.13% | +4.42% | |
| Q2 | $2.30 | -0.38% | $372.40 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.14% | -1.86% | |
| Q1 | $2.30 | -0.77% | $364.73 | 10 | no | yes | -5.34% | -1.89% | |
| Q4 | $2.25 | -0.21% | $429.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.92% | -0.17% | |
| Q3 | $2.25 | -0.02% | $372.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.05% | -2.79% | |
| Q2 | $2.25 | 0.11% | $325.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.61% | +2.28% | |
| Q1 | $2.25 | 0.02% | $378.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.53% | +0.74% | |
| Q4 | $2.09 | 0.23% | $313.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.52% | +4.74% | |
| Q3 | $2.09 | -0.42% | $329.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.54% | +0.34% | |
| Q2 | $2.09 | -0.96% | $292.40 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.25% | +3.90% | |
| Q1 | $2.09 | -0.43% | $290.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.20% | -0.22% | |
| Q4 | $1.90 | -0.96% | $315.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.41% | +1.93% | |
| Q3 | $1.90 | -0.37% | $293.10 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.80% | +2.97% | |
| Q2 | $1.90 | -0.33% | $302.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.64% | -1.10% | |
| Q1 | $1.90 | 1.03% | $316.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.52% | +5.07% | |
| Q4 | $1.65 | 0.37% | $400.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.63% | +3.07% | |
| Q3 | $1.65 | -0.19% | $326.18 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.81% | +2.22% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with HD's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical HD ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.17%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
+3.30%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+7.94%
Best event
+0.74%
Worst event
-5.79%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · HD (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.51% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.52% | |
| -1.89% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.52% | |
| -5.79% | |
| +0.74% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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