Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what HD is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$225.63
Method range
$32.24 – $373.92
median $273.57
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $225.63 | -31.93% |
| Exit multiple | $321.51 | -3.00% |
| Analyst target | $373.92 | +12.81% |
| Graham number | $32.24 | -90.27% |
- Forward DCF$225.63
- Exit multiple$321.51
- Analyst target$373.92
- Graham number$32.24
Stock price
$331.45
FCF / share (TTM)
$5.22
3Y FCF CAGR
-1.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$59.47
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
22.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -457.3% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-1.1%
Your model implies
22.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -1% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | 18.5% | 17.6% | 16.6% | 15.5% | 14.3% |
| 8.4% | 21.1% | 20.3% | 19.5% | 18.6% | 17.6% |
| 9.4% | 23.5% | 22.8% | 22.1% | 21.3% | 20.5% |
| 10.4% | 25.7% | 25.1% | 24.5% | 23.8% | 23.1% |
| 11.4% | 27.9% | 27.3% | 26.8% | 26.2% | 25.5% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.85
Low vs growth
Net debt
$64B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.95
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Home Depot (HD) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
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- Dividend Profile2.79% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History13 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.