Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what HD is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$221.71
Method range
$32.24 – $380.27
median $293.54
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $221.71 | -28.66% |
| Exit multiple | $365.38 | +17.57% |
| Analyst target | $380.27 | +22.36% |
| Graham number | $32.24 | -89.63% |
- Forward DCF$221.71
- Exit multiple$365.38
- Analyst target$380.27
- Graham number$32.24
Stock price
$310.78
FCF / share (TTM)
$5.22
3Y FCF CAGR
-15.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$21.50
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
21.5%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -1345.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-15.8%
Your model implies
21.5%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -16% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | 18.0% | 17.1% | 16.2% | 15.1% | 13.9% |
| 8.5% | 20.5% | 19.8% | 19.0% | 18.1% | 17.1% |
| 9.5% | 22.9% | 22.2% | 21.5% | 20.8% | 20.0% |
| 10.5% | 25.1% | 24.5% | 23.9% | 23.2% | 22.5% |
| 11.5% | 27.2% | 26.7% | 26.1% | 25.5% | 24.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.85
Low vs growth
Net debt
$64.0B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.00
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Home Depot (HD) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation