Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MAA is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$116.42
Method range
$33.87 – $141.62
median $112.02
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $116.42 | -15.36% |
| Exit multiple | $107.62 | -21.76% |
| Analyst target | $141.62 | +2.97% |
| Graham number | $33.87 | -75.38% |
- Forward DCF$116.42
- Exit multiple$107.62
- Analyst target$141.62
- Graham number$33.87
Stock price
$137.54
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.14
3Y FCF CAGR
16.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$7.06
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
59.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -1848.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
16.4%
Your model implies
59.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 16% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | 54.3% | 52.7% | 51.0% | 49.0% | 46.7% |
| 7.3% | 58.4% | 57.1% | 55.6% | 54.0% | 52.3% |
| 8.3% | 62.1% | 60.9% | 59.7% | 58.4% | 56.9% |
| 9.3% | 65.5% | 64.5% | 63.4% | 62.3% | 61.1% |
| 10.3% | 68.7% | 67.8% | 66.9% | 65.9% | 64.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.24
Low vs growth
Net debt
$5.3B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.76
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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