MAR dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 17 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Marriott International (MAR) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 17 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.10), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MAR sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 20, 2026 (±6 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.10
TL;DR over the most recent 17 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.10 | -0.11 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.16% | +0.26pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.44% | +2.05pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 21 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±6 days.
Dividend
$0.73
Per-event yield
0.20%
Annualized yield
0.74%
Previously paid
May 22, 2026 ($0.73)
Last record date
May 22, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 30, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Marriott International (MAR). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.73 | -0.63% | $370.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.88% | +1.92% | |
| Q1 | $0.67 | 0.56% | $347.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.43% | -3.95% | |
| Q4 | $0.67 | 0.43% | $284.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.87% | +7.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.67 | -0.44% | $263.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.79% | +2.80% | |
| Q2 | $0.67 | -1.92% | $260.69 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.98% | +0.46% | |
| Q1 | $0.63 | -0.24% | $282.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -14.87% | -6.70% | |
| Q4 | $0.63 | 0.62% | $280.18 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.03% | +3.40% | |
| Q3 | $0.63 | -0.13% | $221.90 | 2 | yes | yes | -0.98% | +1.80% | |
| Q2 | $0.63 | 0.14% | $236.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.29% | -1.85% | |
| Q1 | $0.52 | -0.68% | $242.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.98% | +2.70% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -0.42% | $206.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.91% | -1.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | -0.85% | $206.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.77% | -1.08% | |
| Q2 | $0.52 | -0.18% | $168.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.85% | +5.64% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | 0.55% | $170.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.60% | +0.42% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | 0.23% | $160.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.15% | +3.25% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | -1.35% | $166.24 | 21 | no | yes | -7.96% | -3.62% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | 1.63% | $163.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.31% | -4.78% | |
| Q1 | $0.48 | -2.65% | $120.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -17.16% | -7.90% | |
| Q4 | $0.48 | -1.19% | $135.47 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.11% | +4.69% | |
| Q3 | $0.48 | 0.69% | $130.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.39% | -3.72% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with MAR's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical MAR ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.07%
Win rate (20 trades)
95%
Cumulative P&L
+1.34%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+190.79%
Best event
+0.40%
Worst event
-3.62%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MAR (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.37% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.18% | |
| -3.62% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.20% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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