Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MAR is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$359.37
Method range
$337.06 – $390.85
median $359.37
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $359.37 | -8.44% |
| Exit multiple | $337.06 | -14.13% |
| Analyst target | $390.85 | -0.42% |
| Graham number | — | — |
- Forward DCF$359.37
- Exit multiple$337.06
- Analyst target$390.85
- Graham number—
Stock price
$392.51
FCF / share (TTM)
$2.71
3Y FCF CAGR
33.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$351.27
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
35.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -11.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
33.8%
Your model implies
35.4%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 34% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | 31.6% | 30.7% | 29.7% | 28.6% | 27.4% |
| 9.1% | 34.3% | 33.5% | 32.7% | 31.8% | 30.8% |
| 10.1% | 36.9% | 36.2% | 35.4% | 34.6% | 33.8% |
| 11.1% | 39.3% | 38.7% | 38.0% | 37.3% | 36.6% |
| 12.1% | 41.6% | 41.1% | 40.5% | 39.8% | 39.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.75
Low vs growth
Net debt
$16.7B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.10
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Marriott International (MAR) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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