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Fair Value for Marriott International (MAR)

See growth priced into Marriott International (MAR): reverse DCF, implied rate vs history and analysts, FCF view. Free intrinsic value calculator for education.

Fair value (multi-method)

Four independent methods triangulate what MAR is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.

Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)

$352.26

Above fair value
-4.98% vs current price $369.80

Method range

$343.59 $393.50

median $352.26

Methods disagree

Valuation methods

Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.

  • Forward DCF$352.26
  • Exit multiple$343.59
  • Analyst target$393.50
  • Graham number

Stock price

$369.80

FCF / share (TTM)

$2.71

3Y FCF CAGR

33.8%

Fair value @ hist. growth

$343.46

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.

Implied FCF growth

34.9%

per year over your projection horizon

Premium vs DCF

Margin of safety -7.7% vs hist-growth DCF

Historical 3Y CAGR

33.8%

Your model implies

34.9%

Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.

Model inputs

Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.

Discount rate (cost of equity proxy)10.2%
Terminal growth2.50%
Projection years10 yr
FCF growth per year (supplemental projection)34%

Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 34% annual growth.

Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions

Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.

Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
8.2%31.1%30.2%29.2%28.2%27.0%
9.2%33.8%33.0%32.2%31.3%30.3%
10.2%36.3%35.6%34.9%34.1%33.3%
11.2%38.7%38.1%37.4%36.8%36.0%
12.2%41.0%40.4%39.9%39.2%38.6%
Color≤ historical CAGRModerate premiumHigh premium (≥ 15pp above hist)Your inputs

Historical multiples

Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.

P/EToday32.6
5Y low20.5
Median32.6
5Y high49.2
P/SToday3.2
5Y low2.3
Median3.2
5Y high3.9
EV/EBITDAToday22.3
5Y low15.0
Median21.7
5Y high33.7

PEG

0.75

Low vs growth

Net debt

$16.7B

Total debt − cash

Beta

1.11

Vs market benchmark

Frequently asked questions