MCY dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Mercury General (MCY) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.32), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MCY sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 10, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.32
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.32 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.60% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.57% | +0.83pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 5 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
Dividend
$0.32
Per-event yield
0.31%
Annualized yield
1.28%
Previously paid
Jun 11, 2026 ($0.32)
Last record date
Jun 11, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 25, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Mercury General (MCY). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.32 | 0.25% | $101.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.11% | +1.59% | |
| Q1 | $0.32 | -2.09% | $88.60 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.14% | -0.36% | |
| Q4 | $0.32 | -0.40% | $89.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.40% | +4.32% | |
| Q3 | $0.32 | 0.14% | $77.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.96% | +2.26% | |
| Q2 | $0.32 | -1.22% | $65.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.23% | -0.93% | |
| Q1 | $0.32 | 0.04% | $54.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.82% | +4.23% | |
| Q4 | $0.32 | -0.48% | $72.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.41% | -6.08% | |
| Q3 | $0.32 | -0.47% | $57.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.16% | +4.17% | |
| Q2 | $0.32 | -0.72% | $52.50 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.17% | +0.51% | |
| Q1 | $0.32 | -0.48% | $47.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.54% | +1.85% | |
| Q4 | $0.32 | -0.43% | $39.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.92% | -5.29% | |
| Q3 | $0.32 | -0.89% | $29.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.00% | -2.23% | |
| Q2 | $0.32 | -1.01% | $29.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.13% | +8.06% | |
| Q1 | $0.32 | 1.34% | $29.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.28% | +4.08% | |
| Q4 | $0.32 | -0.59% | $35.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.97% | -2.78% | |
| Q3 | $0.32 | -0.69% | $33.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.42% | -9.58% | |
| Q2 | $0.64 | -0.68% | $45.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.62% | -1.73% | |
| Q1 | $0.64 | -1.49% | $53.56 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.32% | +2.49% | |
| Q4 | $0.64 | -1.11% | $53.22 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.36% | -2.53% | |
| Q3 | $0.63 | -0.96% | $58.06 | >30 | no | no | -3.82% | -2.29% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with MCY's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical MCY ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.61%
Win rate (20 trades)
95%
Cumulative P&L
+12.11%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+83.87%
Best event
+1.40%
Worst event
-2.29%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MCY (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -2.29% | |
| +1.19% | |
| +1.19% | |
| +1.40% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +1.06% | |
| +1.07% | |
| +1.09% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.31% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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