Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MCY is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$341.65
Method range
$60.14 – $341.65
median $95.16
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $341.65 | +236.70% |
| Exit multiple | $100.32 | -1.13% |
| Analyst target | $90.00 | -11.30% |
| Graham number | $60.14 | -40.73% |
- Forward DCF$341.65
- Exit multiple$100.32
- Analyst target$90.00
- Graham number$60.14
Stock price
$101.47
FCF / share (TTM)
$5.58
3Y FCF CAGR
22.3%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$375.00
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
4.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 72.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
22.3%
Your model implies
4.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 22% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 8.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | -0.7% | -1.7% |
| 8.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| 9.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% |
| 10.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% |
| 11.2% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net cash
$729M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.93
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Mercury General (MCY) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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