McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.20), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MGRC sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jul 17, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.49.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.20in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.20 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.41% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.45% | -0.42pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 13 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.49 |
| Per-event yield | 0.43% |
| Annualized yield | 1.66% |
| Previously paid | Apr 16, 2026 ($0.49) |
| Last record date | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 30, 2026 |
MGRC Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for McGrath RentCorp (MGRC). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.49 | -0.64% | $115.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.08% | +0.30% | |
| Q1 | $0.48 | -0.66% | $111.26 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.34% | +2.83% | |
| Q4 | $0.48 | -0.46% | $117.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.23% | -2.35% | |
| Q3 | $0.48 | -0.01% | $117.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.37% | -0.81% | |
| Q2 | $0.48 | -0.46% | $106.58 | 7 | no | yes | -8.23% | -1.95% | |
| Q1 | $0.47 | 0.38% | $119.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.51% | +3.76% | |
| Q4 | $0.47 | -0.47% | $109.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.98% | -3.25% | |
| Q3 | $0.47 | -0.42% | $113.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.53% | -0.90% | |
| Q2 | $0.47 | 0.19% | $115.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.08% | -5.97% | |
| Q1 | $0.47 | -1.23% | $109.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.27% | +3.65% | |
| Q4 | $0.47 | 0.12% | $102.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.93% | -5.17% | |
| Q3 | $0.47 | -0.35% | $92.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.79% | -0.05% | |
| Q2 | $0.47 | 0.00% | $89.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.10% | +0.11% | |
| Q1 | $0.46 | -0.88% | $100.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.19% | -5.00% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | 0.13% | $84.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.68% | +2.74% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -2.10% | $76.23 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.93% | +4.83% | |
| Q2 | $0.46 | -0.04% | $82.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.29% | +9.81% | |
| Q1 | $0.43 | -0.45% | $78.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.70% | -2.71% | |
| Q4 | $0.43 | 0.20% | $76.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.80% | +1.52% | |
| Q3 | $0.43 | -1.01% | $79.38 | 13 | no | yes | -5.92% | -2.40% |
- +0.30%
- +2.83%
- -2.35%
- -0.81%
- -1.95%
- +3.76%
- -3.25%
- -0.90%
- -5.97%
- +3.65%
- -5.17%
- -0.05%
- +0.11%
- -5.00%
- +2.74%
- +4.83%
- +9.81%
- -2.71%
- +1.52%
- -2.40%
MGRC Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
MGRC Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MGRC's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $100.00
- After-tax dividend
- $65.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$23.03
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$41.97
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.18%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~9.2%
MGRC Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MGRC ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MGRC (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -2.40% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.40% | |
| -1.95% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.43% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.