Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MPC is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,601.99
Method range
$47.05 – $1,601.99
median $204.21
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,601.99 | +511.42% |
| Exit multiple | $168.92 | -35.53% |
| Analyst target | $239.50 | -8.59% |
| Graham number | $47.05 | -82.04% |
- Forward DCF$1,601.99
- Exit multiple$168.92
- Analyst target$239.50
- Graham number$47.05
Stock price
$262.01
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.71
3Y FCF CAGR
36.2%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$203.98
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
39.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -28.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
36.2%
Your model implies
39.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 36% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2% | 34.4% | 32.6% | 30.4% | 27.9% | 24.7% |
| 6.2% | 38.6% | 37.2% | 35.6% | 33.7% | 31.6% |
| 7.2% | 42.3% | 41.1% | 39.8% | 38.4% | 36.7% |
| 8.2% | 45.7% | 44.6% | 43.5% | 42.3% | 41.0% |
| 9.2% | 48.7% | 47.9% | 46.9% | 45.9% | 44.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$30.7B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.52
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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