Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MPC is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,558.02
Method range
$47.05 – $1,558.02
median $347.02
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,558.02 | +393.33% |
| Exit multiple | $402.26 | +27.37% |
| Analyst target | $291.78 | -7.61% |
| Graham number | $47.05 | -85.10% |
- Forward DCF$1,558.02
- Exit multiple$402.26
- Analyst target$291.78
- Graham number$47.05
Stock price
$315.82
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.71
3Y FCF CAGR
36.2%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$198.09
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
43.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -59.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
36.2%
Your model implies
43.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 36% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.3% | 37.5% | 35.7% | 33.6% | 31.1% | 28.0% |
| 6.3% | 41.8% | 40.3% | 38.7% | 36.9% | 34.8% |
| 7.3% | 45.5% | 44.3% | 43.0% | 41.5% | 39.9% |
| 8.3% | 48.9% | 47.9% | 46.8% | 45.5% | 44.2% |
| 9.3% | 52.0% | 51.1% | 50.2% | 49.1% | 48.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$30.7B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.52
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks4.42% TTM
- Dividend Profile1.24% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History1 split
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.