NIKE (NKE) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.16), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, NKE sits noticeably below the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 31, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.16-0.05 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.16 | -0.05 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.51% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 25% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.48% | +0.20pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 14 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.41 |
| Per-event yield | 0.66% |
| Annualized yield | 3.55% |
| Previously paid | Mar 2, 2026 ($0.41) |
| Last record date | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 1, 2026 |
NKE Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for NIKE (NKE). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.41 | -3.67% | $62.18 | >30 | no | no | -13.57% | -8.43% | |
| Q4 | $0.41 | -1.33% | $64.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.57% | -1.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -2.24% | $77.37 | >30 | no | no | -7.03% | -4.36% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | -0.89% | $60.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.63% | +2.84% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | 0.70% | $79.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.21% | -3.31% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -1.08% | $78.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.12% | -0.93% | |
| Q3 | $0.37 | -0.73% | $83.32 | 14 | no | yes | -7.90% | -5.83% | |
| Q2 | $0.37 | -0.56% | $95.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.84% | +1.39% | |
| Q1 | $0.37 | -0.06% | $103.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.61% | -4.23% | |
| Q4 | $0.37 | 0.05% | $110.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.47% | +5.45% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | 0.26% | $101.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.95% | -4.50% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | 3.86% | $103.63 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.94% | +2.48% | |
| Q1 | $0.34 | 0.46% | $119.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.17% | -1.46% | |
| Q4 | $0.34 | -2.21% | $111.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.92% | -1.22% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | 0.91% | $106.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.04% | +5.82% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -2.59% | $123.41 | 4 | yes | yes | -14.33% | -6.79% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -1.09% | $133.97 | 13 | no | yes | -12.85% | -8.24% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | 0.36% | $170.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.81% | -0.37% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | 0.21% | $166.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.30% | -2.01% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -0.23% | $136.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.66% | -1.71% |
- -8.43%
- -1.05%
- -4.36%
- +2.84%
- -3.31%
- -0.93%
- -5.83%
- +1.39%
- -4.23%
- +5.45%
- -4.50%
- +2.48%
- -1.46%
- -1.22%
- +5.82%
- -6.79%
- -8.24%
- -0.37%
- -2.01%
- -1.71%
NKE Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
NKE Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with NKE's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $82.00
- After-tax dividend
- $53.30
- Slippage round-trip
- -$12.44
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$40.86
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.33%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~16.6%
NKE Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical NKE ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · NKE (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.20% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.18% | |
| -8.24% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.39% | |
| -5.83% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.66% | |
| -4.36% | |
| +0.63% | |
| -8.43% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.