Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what NKE is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$26.69
Method range
$8.68 – $66.76
median $39.03
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $26.69 | -37.91% |
| Exit multiple | $51.37 | +19.52% |
| Analyst target | $66.76 | +55.33% |
| Graham number | $8.68 | -79.80% |
- Forward DCF$26.69
- Exit multiple$51.37
- Analyst target$66.76
- Graham number$8.68
Stock price
$42.98
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.19
3Y FCF CAGR
-12.2%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$0.94
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
42.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -4464.6% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-12.2%
Your model implies
42.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -12% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | 38.0% | 37.0% | 36.0% | 34.9% | 33.6% |
| 9.1% | 40.9% | 40.1% | 39.2% | 38.2% | 37.1% |
| 10.1% | 43.6% | 42.9% | 42.1% | 41.2% | 40.3% |
| 11.1% | 46.2% | 45.5% | 44.8% | 44.0% | 43.2% |
| 12.1% | 48.6% | 48.0% | 47.4% | 46.7% | 46.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$3.6B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.12
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
NIKE (NKE) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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