Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what NKE is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$11.68
Method range
$11.68 – $51.28
median $28.35
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $11.68 | -72.33% |
| Exit multiple | $43.94 | +4.10% |
| Analyst target | $51.28 | +21.49% |
| Graham number | $12.75 | -69.78% |
- Forward DCF$11.68
- Exit multiple$43.94
- Analyst target$51.28
- Graham number$12.75
Stock price
$42.21
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.01
3Y FCF CAGR
-14.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$4.26
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
18.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -890.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-14.5%
Your model implies
18.4%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -14% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | 15.2% | 14.4% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 11.9% |
| 9.3% | 17.4% | 16.8% | 16.1% | 15.4% | 14.6% |
| 10.3% | 19.6% | 19.0% | 18.4% | 17.8% | 17.1% |
| 11.3% | 21.6% | 21.1% | 20.6% | 20.0% | 19.4% |
| 12.3% | 23.5% | 23.0% | 22.6% | 22.1% | 21.5% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.15
Low vs growth
Net debt
$3.47B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.13
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
NIKE (NKE) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks0.61% TTM
- Dividend Profile3.86% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History7 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.