ORI dividend capture — median 2d pre-ex touch, 80% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Old Republic International (ORI) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 80% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.92), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ORI sits noticeably below the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 1, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
80%
Median days-to-touch
2d
Signal-to-noise
0.92
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 80% | -15pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.92 | +0.62 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.42% | -0.84pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.51% | -0.10pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 14 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
Dividend
$0.32
Per-event yield
0.85%
Annualized yield
9.72%
Previously paid
Jun 5, 2026 ($0.32)
Last record date
Jun 5, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 15, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Old Republic International (ORI). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.32 | 0.00% | $37.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.03% | +4.56% | |
| Q1 | $0.32 | 0.12% | $41.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.43% | -2.74% | |
| Q1 | $2.50 | -6.11% | $45.64 | >30 | no | no | -8.63% | -1.12% | |
| Q4 | $0.29 | -0.87% | $43.66 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.13% | +4.42% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | -0.85% | $41.09 | 13 | no | yes | -4.67% | -1.29% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | -0.08% | $37.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.08% | +0.72% | |
| Q1 | $0.29 | -1.69% | $37.30 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.43% | +1.31% | |
| Q1 | $2.00 | -4.72% | $36.03 | 9 | no | yes | -8.41% | -0.80% | |
| Q4 | $0.27 | -0.84% | $38.24 | >30 | no | no | -6.88% | -3.10% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | -0.73% | $35.49 | 7 | no | yes | -4.34% | -0.49% | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | -1.02% | $31.34 | 14 | no | yes | -5.84% | -2.79% | |
| Q1 | $0.27 | -0.78% | $29.36 | 5 | yes | yes | -1.91% | +0.63% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | -0.44% | $29.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.31% | +0.15% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | -0.15% | $27.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.01% | +0.93% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | -0.41% | $24.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.41% | +5.34% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | -0.50% | $26.17 | 2 | yes | yes | -10.05% | -6.44% | |
| Q4 | $0.23 | -1.47% | $24.42 | 8 | no | yes | -3.48% | -0.82% | |
| Q3 | $1.23 | -4.65% | $23.23 | >30 | no | no | -9.17% | +0.86% | |
| Q2 | $0.23 | -0.64% | $23.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.17% | -0.93% | |
| Q1 | $0.23 | -2.58% | $26.79 | >30 | no | no | -6.68% | -3.17% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 7 | 35% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 4 | 20% |
Pre-filled with ORI's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical ORI ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.17%
Win rate (20 trades)
60%
Cumulative P&L
-3.36%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+80.70%
Best event
+1.01%
Worst event
-3.17%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ORI (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -3.17% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.86% | |
| -0.82% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +1.01% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +0.90% | |
| -2.79% | |
| -0.49% | |
| -3.10% | |
| -0.80% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.78% | |
| -1.29% | |
| +0.66% | |
| -1.12% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.85% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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