Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ORI is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$207.17
Method range
$27.18 – $207.17
median $37.15
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $207.17 | +442.89% |
| Exit multiple | $32.30 | -15.35% |
| Analyst target | $42.00 | +10.06% |
| Graham number | $27.18 | -28.78% |
- Forward DCF$207.17
- Exit multiple$32.30
- Analyst target$42.00
- Graham number$27.18
Stock price
$38.16
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.15
3Y FCF CAGR
1.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$21.44
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
9.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -78.0% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
1.9%
Your model implies
9.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 2% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.7% | -0.1% |
| 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% |
| 7.8% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% |
| 8.8% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 10.2% |
| 9.8% | 15.2% | 14.7% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 12.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.13
Low vs growth
Net debt
$1.3B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.65
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Old Republic International (ORI) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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