Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what PHM is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$357.75
Method range
$52.46 – $357.75
median $105.04
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $357.75 | +202.15% |
| Exit multiple | $68.86 | -41.84% |
| Analyst target | $141.22 | +19.27% |
| Graham number | $52.46 | -55.69% |
- Forward DCF$357.75
- Exit multiple$68.86
- Analyst target$141.22
- Graham number$52.46
Stock price
$118.40
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.00
3Y FCF CAGR
25.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$0.04
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
100.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -264559.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
25.1%
Your model implies
100.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 25% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 9.6% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 10.6% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 11.6% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 12.6% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$394M
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.22
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
PulteGroup (PHM) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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