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Fair Value for PulteGroup (PHM)

See growth priced into PulteGroup (PHM): reverse DCF, implied rate vs history and analysts, FCF view. Free intrinsic value calculator for education.

Fair value (multi-method)

Four independent methods triangulate what PHM is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.

Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)

$338.52

Margin of safety
+62.56% vs current price $126.75

Method range

$1.94 $338.52

median $105.58

Methods disagree

Valuation methods

Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.

  • Forward DCF$338.52
  • Exit multiple$69.29
  • Analyst target$141.88
  • Graham number$1.94

Stock price

$126.75

EPS (TTM)

$9.74

5Y EPS CAGR

16.5%

Fair value @ hist. growth

$338.52

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.

Implied EPS growth

2.9%

per year over your projection horizon

Discount vs DCF

Margin of safety 62.6% vs hist-growth DCF

Historical 5Y CAGR

16.5%

Your model implies

2.9%

Next-year analyst consensus

2.4%

Model inputs

Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.

Discount rate (cost of equity proxy)10.6%
Terminal growth2.50%
Projection years10 yr

Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions

Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.

Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
8.6%0.2%-0.3%-0.9%-1.5%-2.2%
9.6%2.0%1.6%1.1%0.6%-0.0%
10.6%3.7%3.3%2.9%2.4%1.9%
11.6%5.3%5.0%4.6%4.2%3.8%
12.6%6.9%6.5%6.2%5.9%5.5%
Color≤ historical CAGRModerate premiumHigh premium (≥ 15pp above hist)Your inputs

Historical multiples

Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.

P/EToday10.5· at high
5Y low4.1
Median7.7
5Y high10.5
P/SToday1.3
5Y low0.7
Median1.3
5Y high1.4
EV/EBITDAToday7.8· at high
5Y low3.5
Median6.1
5Y high7.8

PEG

0.39

Low vs growth

Net debt

$394M

Total debt − cash

Beta

1.19

Vs market benchmark

Annual diluted EPS

Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.

Scale: 0.54 to 14.69 EPS; horizontal line at 0. Fiscal years with no row in the database are omitted.

Frequently asked questions