Ticker League

Fair Value for PulteGroup (PHM)

See growth priced into PulteGroup (PHM): reverse DCF, implied rate vs history and analysts, FCF view. Free intrinsic value calculator for education.

Fair value (multi-method)

Four independent methods triangulate what PHM is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.

Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)

$357.75

Margin of safety
+66.90% vs current price $118.40

Method range

$52.46 $357.75

median $105.04

Methods disagree

Valuation methods

Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.

  • Forward DCF$357.75
  • Exit multiple$68.86
  • Analyst target$141.22
  • Graham number$52.46

Stock price

$118.40

FCF / share (TTM)

$0.00

3Y FCF CAGR

25.1%

Fair value @ hist. growth

$0.04

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.

Implied FCF growth

100.0%

per year over your projection horizon

Premium vs DCF

Margin of safety -264559.9% vs hist-growth DCF

Historical 3Y CAGR

25.1%

Your model implies

100.0%

Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.

Model inputs

Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.

Discount rate (cost of equity proxy)10.6%
Terminal growth2.50%
Projection years10 yr
FCF growth per year (supplemental projection)25%
3Y CAGR 25%

Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 25% annual growth.

Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions

Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.

Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
8.6%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
9.6%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
10.6%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
11.6%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
12.6%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Color≤ historical CAGRModerate premiumHigh premium (≥ 15pp above hist)Your inputs

Historical multiples

Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.

P/EToday10.5· at high
5Y low4.1
Median7.6
5Y high10.5
P/SToday1.3
5Y low0.7
Median1.3
5Y high1.4
EV/EBITDAToday7.8· at high
5Y low3.5
Median6.1
5Y high7.8

Net debt

$394M

Total debt − cash

Beta

1.22

Vs market benchmark

Frequently asked questions