PM dividend capture — median 5d pre-ex touch, 90% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Philip Morris International (PM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 5 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.63), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, PM sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 30, 2026 (±6 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
90%
Median days-to-touch
5d
Signal-to-noise
0.63
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 5d | +3.5d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.63 | +0.25 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.29% | -0.65pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.68% | +0.31pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 24 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±6 days.
Dividend
$1.47
Per-event yield
0.82%
Annualized yield
3.29%
Previously paid
Jun 25, 2026 ($1.47)
Last record date
Jun 25, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 20, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Philip Morris International (PM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.47 | -1.48% | $178.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.64% | +2.77% | |
| Q1 | $1.47 | -1.16% | $166.14 | 4 | yes | yes | -8.73% | -1.31% | |
| Q4 | $1.47 | -0.90% | $162.64 | 10 | no | yes | -5.49% | -0.81% | |
| Q4 | $1.47 | -1.34% | $157.91 | 6 | no | yes | -4.45% | +2.55% | |
| Q2 | $1.35 | -1.02% | $180.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.06% | +1.05% | |
| Q1 | $1.35 | -1.02% | $154.29 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.72% | +1.34% | |
| Q4 | $1.35 | -1.16% | $122.91 | 7 | no | yes | -4.82% | +0.37% | |
| Q3 | $1.35 | -1.22% | $121.69 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.42% | -1.61% | |
| Q2 | $1.30 | -1.29% | $101.20 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.24% | +1.41% | |
| Q1 | $1.30 | -1.62% | $94.98 | 24 | no | yes | -4.93% | -1.53% | |
| Q4 | $1.30 | -1.62% | $95.27 | 8 | no | yes | -3.47% | +0.12% | |
| Q3 | $1.30 | -1.93% | $93.72 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.89% | -2.29% | |
| Q2 | $1.27 | -1.17% | $96.35 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.72% | +2.71% | |
| Q1 | $1.27 | -1.26% | $95.70 | 7 | no | yes | -5.87% | +0.30% | |
| Q4 | $1.27 | -1.01% | $100.92 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.32% | +1.53% | |
| Q3 | $1.27 | -0.77% | $90.17 | 23 | no | yes | -8.12% | -2.11% | |
| Q2 | $1.25 | -2.19% | $100.87 | >30 | no | no | -12.49% | -5.68% | |
| Q1 | $1.25 | -0.99% | $93.65 | 6 | no | yes | -2.83% | +1.64% | |
| Q4 | $1.25 | -1.54% | $93.04 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.74% | +2.65% | |
| Q3 | $1.25 | -1.18% | $102.51 | >30 | no | no | -7.94% | -4.75% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 2 | 10% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 6–10 days | 6 | 30% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
Pre-filled with PM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical PM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.06%
Win rate (20 trades)
75%
Cumulative P&L
+1.15%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+100.46%
Best event
+2.55%
Worst event
-5.68%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · PM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -4.75% | |
| +1.34% | |
| +1.64% | |
| -5.68% | |
| -2.11% | |
| +1.26% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +1.32% | |
| +1.39% | |
| +0.12% | |
| -1.53% | |
| +1.28% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +2.55% | |
| -0.81% | |
| +0.88% | |
| +0.82% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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