Philip Morris International (PM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 6 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.66), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, PM sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 25, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.47.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 6d+4.5d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.66+0.28 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 6d | +4.5d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.66 | +0.28 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.33% | -0.69pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.68% | +0.43pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 24 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $1.47 |
| Per-event yield | 0.88% |
| Annualized yield | 3.30% |
| Previously paid | Mar 19, 2026 ($1.47) |
| Last record date | Mar 19, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 13, 2026 |
PM Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Philip Morris International (PM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.47 | -1.16% | $166.14 | 4 | yes | yes | -8.73% | -1.31% | |
| Q4 | $1.47 | -0.90% | $162.64 | 10 | no | yes | -5.49% | -0.81% | |
| Q4 | $1.47 | -1.34% | $157.91 | 6 | no | yes | -4.45% | +2.55% | |
| Q2 | $1.35 | -1.02% | $180.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.06% | +1.05% | |
| Q1 | $1.35 | -1.02% | $154.29 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.72% | +1.34% | |
| Q4 | $1.35 | -1.16% | $122.91 | 7 | no | yes | -4.82% | +0.37% | |
| Q3 | $1.35 | -1.22% | $121.69 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.42% | -1.61% | |
| Q2 | $1.30 | -1.29% | $101.20 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.24% | +1.41% | |
| Q1 | $1.30 | -1.62% | $94.98 | 24 | no | yes | -4.93% | -1.53% | |
| Q4 | $1.30 | -1.62% | $95.27 | 8 | no | yes | -3.47% | +0.12% | |
| Q3 | $1.30 | -1.93% | $93.72 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.89% | -2.29% | |
| Q2 | $1.27 | -1.17% | $96.35 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.72% | +2.71% | |
| Q1 | $1.27 | -1.26% | $95.70 | 7 | no | yes | -5.87% | +0.30% | |
| Q4 | $1.27 | -1.01% | $100.92 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.32% | +1.53% | |
| Q3 | $1.27 | -0.77% | $90.17 | 23 | no | yes | -8.12% | -2.11% | |
| Q2 | $1.25 | -2.19% | $100.87 | >30 | no | no | -12.49% | -5.68% | |
| Q1 | $1.25 | -0.99% | $93.65 | 6 | no | yes | -2.83% | +1.64% | |
| Q4 | $1.25 | -1.54% | $93.04 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.74% | +2.65% | |
| Q3 | $1.25 | -1.18% | $102.51 | >30 | no | no | -7.94% | -4.75% | |
| Q2 | $1.20 | -2.13% | $100.05 | 6 | no | yes | -2.54% | +1.04% |
- -1.31%
- -0.81%
- +2.55%
- +1.05%
- +1.34%
- +0.37%
- -1.61%
- +1.41%
- -1.53%
- +0.12%
- -2.29%
- +2.71%
- +0.30%
- +1.53%
- -2.11%
- -5.68%
- +1.64%
- +2.65%
- -4.75%
- +1.04%
PM Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 1 | 5% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 6–10 days | 7 | 35% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
PM Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with PM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $294.00
- After-tax dividend
- $191.10
- Slippage round-trip
- -$33.23
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$157.87
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.48%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~23.9%
PM Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical PM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · PM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.04% | |
| -4.75% | |
| +1.34% | |
| +1.64% | |
| -5.68% | |
| -2.11% | |
| +1.26% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +1.32% | |
| +1.39% | |
| +0.12% | |
| -1.53% | |
| +1.28% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +2.55% | |
| -0.81% | |
| +0.88% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.