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Fair Value for Philip Morris International (PM)

See growth priced into Philip Morris International (PM): reverse DCF, implied rate vs history and analysts, FCF view. Free intrinsic value calculator for education.

Fair value (multi-method)

Four independent methods triangulate what PM is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.

Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)

$247.04

Margin of safety
+21.35% vs current price $194.30

Method range

$146.81 $247.04

median $199.60

Methods disagree

Valuation methods

Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.

  • Forward DCF$247.04
  • Exit multiple$146.81
  • Analyst target$199.60
  • Graham number

Stock price

$194.30

EPS (TTM)

$6.96

5Y EPS CAGR

7.1%

Fair value @ hist. growth

$247.04

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.

Implied EPS growth

4.1%

per year over your projection horizon

Discount vs DCF

Margin of safety 21.3% vs hist-growth DCF

Historical 5Y CAGR

7.1%

Your model implies

4.1%

Next-year analyst consensus

20.1%

Model inputs

Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.

Discount rate (cost of equity proxy)6.7%
Terminal growth2.50%
Projection years10 yr

Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions

Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.

Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
5.0%1.1%-0.3%-1.8%-3.8%-6.2%
5.7%3.2%2.1%0.9%-0.6%-2.4%
6.7%6.0%5.1%4.1%3.0%1.7%
7.7%8.4%7.7%6.9%6.0%5.0%
8.7%10.7%10.0%9.4%8.6%7.8%
Color≤ historical CAGRModerate premiumHigh premium (≥ 15pp above hist)Your inputs

Historical multiples

Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.

P/EToday22.1
5Y low16.3
Median18.7
5Y high26.6
P/SToday6.1· at high
5Y low4.2
Median4.9
5Y high6.1
EV/EBITDAToday16.8· at high
5Y low12.3
Median14.5
5Y high16.8

PEG

1.63

Fair vs growth

Net debt

$44B

Total debt − cash

Beta

0.41

Vs market benchmark

Annual diluted EPS

Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.

Scale: 3.88 to 7.26 EPS; horizontal line at 0. Fiscal years with no row in the database are omitted.

Frequently asked questions