PNC dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 90% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
PNC Financial Services Group (PNC) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.41), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, PNC sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 19, 2026 (±4 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
90%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.41
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.41 | +0.10 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.89% | -0.31pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.49% | in line with sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 5 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±4 days.
Dividend
$2.00
Per-event yield
0.79%
Annualized yield
2.84%
Previously paid
Jul 20, 2026 ($2.00)
Last record date
Jul 20, 2026
Last payment date
Aug 5, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for PNC Financial Services Group (PNC). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $2.00 | -0.42% | $252.86 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.47% | -0.48% | |
| Q2 | $1.70 | -1.05% | $223.00 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.06% | +3.03% | |
| Q1 | $1.70 | -1.52% | $223.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.55% | +0.99% | |
| Q4 | $1.70 | -1.23% | $186.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.37% | -1.77% | |
| Q3 | $1.70 | -0.98% | $197.39 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.98% | +0.55% | |
| Q2 | $1.60 | -2.13% | $155.39 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.58% | +3.84% | |
| Q1 | $1.60 | 1.88% | $195.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.27% | +1.81% | |
| Q4 | $1.60 | 0.22% | $192.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.41% | -1.32% | |
| Q3 | $1.60 | 0.11% | $168.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.48% | +6.05% | |
| Q2 | $1.55 | -2.54% | $154.08 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.85% | -0.15% | |
| Q1 | $1.55 | -0.49% | $152.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.71% | -1.02% | |
| Q4 | $1.55 | -0.19% | $118.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.40% | -5.82% | |
| Q3 | $1.55 | 0.16% | $129.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.15% | +4.64% | |
| Q2 | $1.50 | -1.37% | $121.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.58% | +3.22% | |
| Q1 | $1.50 | -2.41% | $168.82 | >30 | no | no | -12.87% | -4.73% | |
| Q4 | $1.50 | -1.94% | $152.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.97% | +3.20% | |
| Q3 | $1.50 | -1.39% | $160.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.63% | +0.92% | |
| Q2 | $1.50 | -0.94% | $183.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.67% | -1.54% | |
| Q1 | $1.25 | -2.24% | $226.45 | >30 | no | no | -14.12% | -9.31% | |
| Q4 | $1.25 | 0.60% | $201.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.16% | +6.06% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
Pre-filled with PNC's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical PNC ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.14%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
+2.78%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+39.54%
Best event
+1.31%
Worst event
-9.31%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · PNC (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.62% | |
| -9.31% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.98% | |
| -4.73% | |
| +1.23% | |
| +1.19% | |
| +1.31% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +1.01% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.79% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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