Republic Services (RSG) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.23), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, RSG sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jul 2, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.63.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.23in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.23 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.39% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.92% | +1.11pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 16 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.63 |
| Per-event yield | 0.28% |
| Annualized yield | 1.22% |
| Previously paid | Apr 2, 2026 ($0.63) |
| Last record date | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 15, 2026 |
RSG Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Republic Services (RSG). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.63 | 0.07% | $220.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.38% | -2.43% | |
| Q1 | $0.63 | -0.65% | $211.93 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.90% | +0.43% | |
| Q4 | $0.63 | -0.94% | $227.29 | >30 | no | no | -3.23% | -2.19% | |
| Q3 | $0.58 | -0.87% | $244.67 | 8 | no | yes | -3.44% | -1.63% | |
| Q2 | $0.58 | -0.85% | $243.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.04% | -1.59% | |
| Q1 | $0.58 | 0.01% | $201.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.87% | +2.83% | |
| Q4 | $0.58 | -0.33% | $201.28 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.72% | +2.06% | |
| Q3 | $0.54 | -0.34% | $192.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.69% | +2.35% | |
| Q2 | $0.54 | -0.39% | $191.44 | 16 | no | yes | -2.64% | -1.25% | |
| Q4 | $0.54 | -0.08% | $164.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.24% | +0.35% | |
| Q3 | $0.54 | -0.64% | $144.98 | 7 | no | yes | -3.28% | -0.04% | |
| Q2 | $0.49 | -0.20% | $151.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.23% | -0.04% | |
| Q1 | $0.49 | 0.11% | $134.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.77% | +0.44% | |
| Q4 | $0.49 | -0.67% | $130.75 | >30 | no | no | -6.31% | -1.93% | |
| Q3 | $0.49 | -0.13% | $137.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.98% | -5.62% | |
| Q2 | $0.46 | -1.12% | $130.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.20% | +0.08% | |
| Q1 | $0.46 | -0.13% | $134.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.44% | +0.78% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | -0.44% | $138.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.12% | -3.14% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -0.04% | $122.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.37% | +2.47% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | -0.26% | $109.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.57% | +2.87% |
- -2.43%
- +0.43%
- -2.19%
- -1.63%
- -1.59%
- +2.83%
- +2.06%
- +2.35%
- -1.25%
- +0.35%
- -0.04%
- -0.04%
- +0.44%
- -1.93%
- -5.62%
- +0.08%
- +0.78%
- -3.14%
- +2.47%
- +2.87%
RSG Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
RSG Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with RSG's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $126.00
- After-tax dividend
- $81.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$44.13
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$37.77
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.09%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~4.3%
RSG Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical RSG ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · RSG (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.39% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.36% | |
| -1.93% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.33% | |
| -0.04% | |
| +0.33% | |
| -1.25% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.24% | |
| -1.63% | |
| -2.19% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.28% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.