Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what TSM is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$28,916.39
Method range
$10.52 – $28,916.39
median $415.01
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $28,916.39 | +6,864.95% |
| Exit multiple | $402.52 | -3.05% |
| Analyst target | $427.50 | +2.97% |
| Graham number | $10.52 | -97.47% |
- Forward DCF$28,916.39
- Exit multiple$402.52
- Analyst target$427.50
- Graham number$10.52
Stock price
$415.17
FCF / share (TTM)
$72.72
3Y FCF CAGR
43.0%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$15113.11
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
-8.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 97.3% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
43.0%
Your model implies
-8.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 43% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 3.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.9% | -11.0% | -11.4% | -11.8% | -12.2% | -12.7% |
| 9.9% | -9.6% | -9.9% | -10.3% | -10.6% | -11.0% |
| 10.9% | -8.2% | -8.5% | -8.8% | -9.1% | -9.5% |
| 11.9% | -7.0% | -7.2% | -7.5% | -7.7% | -8.0% |
| 12.9% | -5.7% | -5.9% | -6.2% | -6.4% | -6.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
1.83
Fair vs growth
Net cash
$1.7T
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.26
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
TSMC (TSM) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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