Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what TSM is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$33,708.78
Method range
$12.25 – $33,708.78
median $7,009.96
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $33,708.78 | +7,902.84% |
| Exit multiple | $13,433.91 | +3,089.36% |
| Analyst target | $586.00 | +39.12% |
| Graham number | $12.25 | -97.09% |
- Forward DCF$33,708.78
- Exit multiple$13,433.91
- Analyst target$586.00
- Graham number$12.25
Stock price
$421.21
FCF / share (TTM)
$72.72
3Y FCF CAGR
43.0%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$15,034.62
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
-8.5%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 97.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
43.0%
Your model implies
-8.5%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 43% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 3.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.9% | -10.8% | -11.1% | -11.5% | -12.0% | -12.5% |
| 9.9% | -9.3% | -9.6% | -10.0% | -10.4% | -10.8% |
| 10.9% | -8.0% | -8.3% | -8.5% | -8.9% | -9.2% |
| 11.9% | -6.7% | -6.9% | -7.2% | -7.5% | -7.8% |
| 12.9% | -5.4% | -5.7% | -5.9% | -6.1% | -6.4% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
1.81
Fair vs growth
Net cash
$1.7T
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.25
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
TSMC (TSM) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks
- Dividend Profile0.83% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History9 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.