Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what UAL is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$94.50
Method range
$53.25 – $160.89
median $94.67
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $94.50 | -19.41% |
| Exit multiple | $94.84 | -19.12% |
| Analyst target | $160.89 | +37.21% |
| Graham number | $53.25 | -54.59% |
- Forward DCF$94.50
- Exit multiple$94.84
- Analyst target$160.89
- Graham number$53.25
Stock price
$117.26
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.81
3Y FCF CAGR
27.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$58.28
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
37.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -101.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
27.4%
Your model implies
37.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 27% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | 33.9% | 33.1% | 32.3% | 31.3% | 30.3% |
| 10.0% | 36.5% | 35.8% | 35.1% | 34.2% | 33.4% |
| 11.0% | 39.0% | 38.3% | 37.7% | 36.9% | 36.2% |
| 12.0% | 41.3% | 40.7% | 40.1% | 39.5% | 38.8% |
| 13.0% | 43.5% | 43.0% | 42.4% | 41.9% | 41.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.92
Low vs growth
Net debt
$25.1B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.26
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
United Airlines Holdings (UAL) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.