Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what UAL is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$103.20
Method range
$48.35 – $140.20
median $94.60
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $103.20 | -2.39% |
| Exit multiple | $86.00 | -18.66% |
| Analyst target | $140.20 | +32.60% |
| Graham number | $48.35 | -54.27% |
- Forward DCF$103.20
- Exit multiple$86.00
- Analyst target$140.20
- Graham number$48.35
Stock price
$105.73
FCF / share (TTM)
$9.57
3Y FCF CAGR
27.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$728.55
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
0.5%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 85.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
27.4%
Your model implies
0.5%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 27% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 6.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | -2.0% | -2.5% | -3.1% | -3.7% | -4.3% |
| 9.6% | -0.3% | -0.7% | -1.2% | -1.7% | -2.3% |
| 10.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.4% |
| 11.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% |
| 12.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$25.1B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.21
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
United Airlines Holdings (UAL) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation