UPS dividend capture — median 2d pre-ex touch, 90% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
United Parcel Service (UPS) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.45), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, UPS sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 17, 2026 (±3 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
90%
Median days-to-touch
2d
Signal-to-noise
0.45
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.45 | +0.28 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.08% | -0.74pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.96% | in line with sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 16 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±3 days.
Dividend
$1.64
Per-event yield
1.66%
Annualized yield
6.87%
Previously paid
May 18, 2026 ($1.64)
Last record date
May 18, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 4, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for United Parcel Service (UPS). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.64 | -2.13% | $98.93 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.12% | +4.73% | |
| Q1 | $1.64 | -1.51% | $119.24 | >30 | no | no | -5.28% | -1.87% | |
| Q4 | $1.64 | -1.83% | $95.98 | 5 | yes | yes | -5.36% | -0.81% | |
| Q3 | $1.64 | -1.67% | $88.48 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.83% | +1.02% | |
| Q2 | $1.64 | -2.84% | $101.32 | 16 | no | yes | -6.01% | -2.10% | |
| Q1 | $1.64 | -1.44% | $116.22 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.98% | +3.04% | |
| Q4 | $1.63 | -1.32% | $134.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.42% | +3.80% | |
| Q3 | $1.63 | -1.46% | $129.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.71% | +0.96% | |
| Q2 | $1.63 | -0.71% | $148.06 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.10% | +1.90% | |
| Q1 | $1.63 | -0.90% | $146.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.39% | +1.46% | |
| Q4 | $1.62 | -0.89% | $139.95 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.45% | +6.90% | |
| Q3 | $1.62 | -1.17% | $180.38 | >30 | no | no | -7.75% | -4.17% | |
| Q2 | $1.62 | -0.66% | $170.23 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.40% | +1.36% | |
| Q1 | $1.62 | -1.32% | $185.55 | 10 | no | yes | -5.10% | -0.92% | |
| Q4 | $1.52 | 2.13% | $164.01 | 1 | yes | yes | 2.13% | +8.27% | |
| Q3 | $1.52 | -0.92% | $204.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.37% | +2.70% | |
| Q2 | $1.52 | -1.00% | $178.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.45% | -3.41% | |
| Q1 | $1.52 | -1.19% | $210.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.53% | +0.58% | |
| Q4 | $1.02 | 0.13% | $207.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.58% | -0.87% | |
| Q3 | $1.02 | -0.83% | $194.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.03% | +0.13% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
Pre-filled with UPS's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical UPS ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.43%
Win rate (20 trades)
80%
Cumulative P&L
+8.63%
Buy & hold (same sample)
-34.82%
Best event
+1.85%
Worst event
-4.17%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · UPS (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.53% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.93% | |
| -0.92% | |
| +0.95% | |
| -4.17% | |
| +1.16% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +1.10% | |
| +1.26% | |
| +1.22% | |
| +1.41% | |
| -2.10% | |
| +1.85% | |
| +1.71% | |
| -1.87% | |
| +1.66% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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