United Parcel Service (UPS) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.44), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, UPS sits noticeably below the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 17, 2026 (±3 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-6pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.44+0.26 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -6pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.44 | +0.26 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.02% | -0.66pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.77% | +1.26pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 16 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±3 days.
| Dividend | $1.64 |
| Per-event yield | 1.38% |
| Annualized yield | 6.87% |
| Previously paid | Feb 17, 2026 ($1.64) |
| Last record date | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 5, 2026 |
UPS Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for United Parcel Service (UPS). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.64 | -1.51% | $119.24 | >30 | no | no | -5.28% | -1.87% | |
| Q4 | $1.64 | -1.83% | $95.98 | 5 | yes | yes | -5.36% | -0.81% | |
| Q3 | $1.64 | -1.67% | $88.48 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.83% | +1.02% | |
| Q2 | $1.64 | -2.84% | $101.32 | 16 | no | yes | -6.01% | -2.10% | |
| Q1 | $1.64 | -1.44% | $116.22 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.98% | +3.04% | |
| Q4 | $1.63 | -1.32% | $134.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.42% | +3.80% | |
| Q3 | $1.63 | -1.46% | $129.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.71% | +0.96% | |
| Q2 | $1.63 | -0.71% | $148.06 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.10% | +1.90% | |
| Q1 | $1.63 | -0.90% | $146.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.39% | +1.46% | |
| Q4 | $1.62 | -0.89% | $139.95 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.45% | +6.90% | |
| Q3 | $1.62 | -1.17% | $180.38 | >30 | no | no | -7.75% | -4.17% | |
| Q2 | $1.62 | -0.66% | $170.23 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.40% | +1.36% | |
| Q1 | $1.62 | -1.31% | $185.55 | 10 | no | yes | -5.10% | -0.92% | |
| Q4 | $1.52 | 2.13% | $164.01 | 1 | yes | yes | 2.13% | +8.27% | |
| Q3 | $1.52 | -0.92% | $204.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.37% | +2.70% | |
| Q2 | $1.52 | -1.00% | $178.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.45% | -3.41% | |
| Q1 | $1.52 | -1.19% | $210.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.53% | +0.58% | |
| Q4 | $1.02 | 0.13% | $207.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.58% | -0.87% | |
| Q3 | $1.02 | -0.83% | $194.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.03% | +0.13% | |
| Q2 | $1.02 | 0.11% | $213.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.48% | +0.79% |
- -1.87%
- -0.81%
- +1.02%
- -2.10%
- +3.04%
- +3.80%
- +0.96%
- +1.90%
- +1.46%
- +6.90%
- -4.17%
- +1.36%
- -0.92%
- +8.27%
- +2.70%
- -3.41%
- +0.58%
- -0.87%
- +0.13%
- +0.79%
UPS Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 10 | 50% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
UPS Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with UPS's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $328.00
- After-tax dividend
- $213.20
- Slippage round-trip
- -$23.85
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$189.35
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.79%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~40.0%
UPS Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical UPS ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · UPS (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.48% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.93% | |
| -0.92% | |
| +0.95% | |
| -4.17% | |
| +1.16% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +1.10% | |
| +1.26% | |
| +1.22% | |
| +1.41% | |
| -2.10% | |
| +1.85% | |
| +1.71% | |
| -1.87% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.