Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what UPS is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$840.65
Method range
$20.59 – $840.65
median $106.47
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $840.65 | +674.51% |
| Exit multiple | $97.72 | -9.97% |
| Analyst target | $115.23 | +6.16% |
| Graham number | $20.59 | -81.03% |
- Forward DCF$840.65
- Exit multiple$97.72
- Analyst target$115.23
- Graham number$20.59
Stock price
$108.54
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.40
3Y FCF CAGR
-17.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$5.04
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
25.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -2051.6% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-17.9%
Your model implies
25.6%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -18% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | 22.0% | 21.1% | 20.1% | 19.1% | 17.9% |
| 8.7% | 24.6% | 23.8% | 23.0% | 22.1% | 21.2% |
| 9.7% | 27.0% | 26.3% | 25.6% | 24.8% | 24.0% |
| 10.7% | 29.2% | 28.7% | 28.0% | 27.4% | 26.7% |
| 11.7% | 31.4% | 30.9% | 30.3% | 29.7% | 29.1% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$26.4B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.04
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
United Parcel Service (UPS) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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