ABR dividend capture — median 8d pre-ex touch, 40% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 40% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 8 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.81), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ABR sits noticeably below the Real Estate sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 14, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.17.
Touch rate (30d)
40%
Median days-to-touch
8d
Signal-to-noise
0.81
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 40% | -55pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 8d | +6.5d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.81 | +0.37 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -3.07% | -2.27pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 15% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -8.06% | -3.23pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 19 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$0.17
Per-event yield
2.88%
Annualized yield
18.22%
Previously paid
May 22, 2026 ($0.17)
Last record date
May 22, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 5, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Arbor Realty Trust (ABR). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.17 | -2.88% | $5.91 | >30 | no | no | -12.01% | -4.23% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -4.12% | $8.50 | >30 | no | no | -12.24% | -4.94% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -3.63% | $9.08 | 9 | no | yes | -9.91% | -2.86% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | -2.35% | $11.92 | 6 | no | yes | -5.12% | +1.76% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -2.58% | $10.84 | >30 | no | no | -22.23% | -9.78% | |
| Q1 | $0.43 | -3.91% | $12.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.04% | +4.48% | |
| Q4 | $0.43 | -2.19% | $15.10 | >30 | no | no | -4.83% | -0.60% | |
| Q3 | $0.43 | -3.69% | $13.84 | 10 | no | yes | -6.86% | -0.58% | |
| Q2 | $0.43 | -3.68% | $14.68 | >30 | no | no | -11.58% | -6.95% | |
| Q1 | $0.43 | -3.43% | $13.40 | 19 | no | yes | -7.84% | -0.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.43 | -5.06% | $13.84 | 12 | no | yes | -14.96% | -9.18% | |
| Q3 | $0.43 | -2.77% | $16.58 | >30 | no | no | -11.34% | -5.55% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | -2.10% | $12.87 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.38% | -1.63% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -3.69% | $14.11 | >30 | no | no | -23.46% | -17.86% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -4.68% | $14.53 | 4 | yes | yes | -6.26% | +3.51% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -2.38% | $15.94 | >30 | no | no | -5.83% | -0.63% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | -3.10% | $16.80 | >30 | no | no | -7.44% | -0.71% | |
| Q1 | $0.37 | -1.44% | $18.06 | >30 | no | no | -4.82% | -0.33% | |
| Q4 | $0.36 | -2.06% | $19.92 | >30 | no | no | -10.59% | -5.82% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | -1.60% | $18.71 | >30 | no | no | -8.28% | -2.99% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 1 | 5% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 12 | 60% |
Pre-filled with ABR's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical ABR ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-3.13%
Win rate (20 trades)
20%
Cumulative P&L
-62.55%
Buy & hold (same sample)
-30.41%
Best event
+3.50%
Worst event
-17.86%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ABR (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -2.99% | |
| -5.82% | |
| -0.33% | |
| -0.71% | |
| -0.63% | |
| +2.75% | |
| -17.86% | |
| +3.26% | |
| -5.55% | |
| -9.18% | |
| -0.82% | |
| -6.95% | |
| -0.58% | |
| -0.60% | |
| +3.50% | |
| -9.78% | |
| +1.76% | |
| -2.86% | |
| -4.94% | |
| -4.23% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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