Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ABR is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1.73
Method range
$1.73 – $5.50
median $3.40
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1.73 | -65.76% |
| Exit multiple | $2.47 | -51.18% |
| Analyst target | $5.50 | +8.91% |
| Graham number | $4.33 | -14.17% |
- Forward DCF$1.73
- Exit multiple$2.47
- Analyst target$5.50
- Graham number$4.33
Stock price
$5.05
EPS (TTM)
$0.47
5Y EPS CAGR
-16.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$1.73
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
-0.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -192.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
-16.9%
Your model implies
-0.6%
Next-year analyst consensus
-31.2%
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | -3.2% | -3.7% | -4.3% | -5.0% | -5.7% |
| 9.1% | -1.4% | -1.9% | -2.4% | -2.9% | -3.5% |
| 10.1% | 0.3% | -0.1% | -0.6% | -1.0% | -1.5% |
| 11.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 12.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$10.6B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.12
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
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