ADC dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Agree Realty (ADC) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.21), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ADC sits roughly in line with the Real Estate sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 30, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.21
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.21 | -0.23 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.32% | +0.48pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 63% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.00% | +2.83pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 11 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
Dividend
$0.27
Per-event yield
0.34%
Annualized yield
4.05%
Previously paid
Jul 31, 2026 ($0.27)
Last record date
Jul 31, 2026
Last payment date
Aug 14, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Agree Realty (ADC). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $0.27 | -1.17% | $78.41 | >30 | no | no | -2.46% | — | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | -0.94% | $76.93 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.62% | +1.63% | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | -0.59% | $74.55 | 8 | no | yes | -4.47% | -1.17% | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | -0.07% | $76.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.04% | +0.32% | |
| Q1 | $0.26 | 0.47% | $74.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.52% | +2.74% | |
| Q1 | $0.26 | -0.58% | $79.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.70% | +2.30% | |
| Q1 | $0.26 | -0.75% | $71.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.57% | +4.23% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | -0.21% | $72.84 | 11 | no | yes | -4.50% | -2.43% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | -0.19% | $75.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.51% | -1.30% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | -0.99% | $72.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.67% | +1.10% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | -0.09% | $70.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.09% | +0.26% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | 0.04% | $72.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.49% | +0.30% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | -0.96% | $72.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.95% | +1.68% | |
| Q2 | $0.26 | 0.03% | $72.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.63% | -0.99% | |
| Q2 | $0.26 | -0.15% | $74.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.42% | -0.19% | |
| Q2 | $0.26 | -0.13% | $77.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.53% | -1.14% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | 0.50% | $76.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.98% | -6.52% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | 0.11% | $73.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.28% | +3.51% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | -0.88% | $73.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.52% | +0.06% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | 0.10% | $69.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.33% | +0.05% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with ADC's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical ADC ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (19 events)
+0.12%
Win rate (19 trades)
89%
Cumulative P&L
+2.33%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+18.71%
Best event
+0.36%
Worst event
-2.43%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
19 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ADC (19)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.36% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.35% | |
| -2.43% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.35% | |
| -1.17% | |
| +0.35% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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