American Electric Power Company (AEP) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.46), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AEP sits noticeably below the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 7, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.46in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.46 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.77% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.49% | +1.35pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 13 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $0.95 |
| Per-event yield | 0.78% |
| Annualized yield | 2.90% |
| Previously paid | Feb 10, 2026 ($0.95) |
| Last record date | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 10, 2026 |
AEP Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for American Electric Power Company (AEP). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.95 | -0.71% | $121.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.15% | +5.88% | |
| Q4 | $0.95 | -0.40% | $121.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.79% | +2.67% | |
| Q3 | $0.93 | -0.65% | $113.73 | 9 | no | yes | -2.68% | -0.71% | |
| Q2 | $0.93 | -0.72% | $105.19 | >30 | no | no | -7.35% | -1.16% | |
| Q1 | $0.93 | -0.59% | $100.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.24% | +2.77% | |
| Q4 | $0.93 | -0.48% | $96.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.97% | +0.94% | |
| Q3 | $0.88 | -0.62% | $98.04 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.13% | -0.22% | |
| Q2 | $0.88 | -1.38% | $90.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.39% | +3.14% | |
| Q1 | $0.88 | -1.56% | $77.33 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.73% | +6.35% | |
| Q4 | $0.88 | -0.67% | $78.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.07% | +0.14% | |
| Q3 | $0.83 | -1.01% | $80.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.74% | -0.99% | |
| Q2 | $0.83 | -1.24% | $92.14 | >30 | no | no | -6.95% | -3.49% | |
| Q1 | $0.83 | -0.71% | $90.38 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.49% | +1.27% | |
| Q4 | $0.83 | -1.05% | $89.25 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.82% | +1.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.78 | -0.58% | $100.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.58% | +5.16% | |
| Q2 | $0.78 | -0.75% | $99.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.48% | +0.52% | |
| Q1 | $0.78 | -0.20% | $90.20 | 13 | no | yes | -6.65% | -4.45% | |
| Q4 | $0.78 | -0.61% | $83.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.49% | -0.67% | |
| Q3 | $0.74 | -0.63% | $89.34 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.34% | +1.90% | |
| Q2 | $0.74 | -1.19% | $88.12 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.88% | -0.70% |
- +5.88%
- +2.67%
- -0.71%
- -1.16%
- +2.77%
- +0.94%
- -0.22%
- +3.14%
- +6.35%
- +0.14%
- -0.99%
- -3.49%
- +1.27%
- +1.48%
- +5.16%
- +0.52%
- -4.45%
- -0.67%
- +1.90%
- -0.70%
AEP Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 10 | 50% | |
| 2–3 days | 6 | 30% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
AEP Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with AEP's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $190.00
- After-tax dividend
- $123.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$24.22
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$99.28
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.41%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~20.7%
AEP Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical AEP ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AEP (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.84% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +0.93% | |
| -4.45% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +0.92% | |
| -3.49% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +1.13% | |
| +1.14% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.93% | |
| -1.16% | |
| -0.71% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.78% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.