Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AFL is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$147.63
Method range
$51.08 – $147.63
median $92.62
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $147.63 | +19.46% |
| Exit multiple | $68.90 | -44.24% |
| Analyst target | $116.33 | -5.87% |
| Graham number | $51.08 | -58.66% |
- Forward DCF$147.63
- Exit multiple$68.90
- Analyst target$116.33
- Graham number$51.08
Stock price
$123.58
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.89
3Y FCF CAGR
-10.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$13.75
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
17.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -798.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-10.4%
Your model implies
17.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -10% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | 13.7% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 7.2% |
| 6.7% | 16.8% | 15.8% | 14.6% | 13.4% | 11.9% |
| 7.7% | 19.6% | 18.7% | 17.8% | 16.8% | 15.6% |
| 8.7% | 22.1% | 21.4% | 20.6% | 19.8% | 18.8% |
| 9.7% | 24.5% | 23.9% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 21.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$2.16B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.60
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Aflac (AFL) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks6.45% TTM
- Dividend Profile1.93% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History13 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.