Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AFL is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$152.76
Method range
$51.08 – $152.76
median $93.59
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $152.76 | +25.31% |
| Exit multiple | $69.18 | -43.25% |
| Analyst target | $118.00 | -3.21% |
| Graham number | $51.08 | -58.10% |
- Forward DCF$152.76
- Exit multiple$69.18
- Analyst target$118.00
- Graham number$51.08
Stock price
$121.91
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.89
3Y FCF CAGR
-10.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$14.12
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
17.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -763.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-10.4%
Your model implies
17.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -10% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 6.0% |
| 6.5% | 16.1% | 15.0% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 11.0% |
| 7.5% | 18.9% | 18.1% | 17.1% | 16.0% | 14.8% |
| 8.5% | 21.5% | 20.8% | 20.0% | 19.1% | 18.1% |
| 9.5% | 23.9% | 23.2% | 22.5% | 21.8% | 21.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$2.2B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.60
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Aflac (AFL) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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