Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AFL is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$148.74
Method range
$44.21 – $148.74
median $92.23
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $148.74 | +25.79% |
| Exit multiple | $69.28 | -41.40% |
| Analyst target | $115.17 | -2.60% |
| Graham number | $44.21 | -62.61% |
- Forward DCF$148.74
- Exit multiple$69.28
- Analyst target$115.17
- Graham number$44.21
Stock price
$118.24
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.89
3Y FCF CAGR
-10.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$13.83
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
17.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -754.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-10.4%
Your model implies
17.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -10% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 6.5% |
| 6.6% | 16.1% | 15.1% | 14.0% | 12.7% | 11.2% |
| 7.6% | 18.9% | 18.1% | 17.1% | 16.1% | 14.9% |
| 8.6% | 21.4% | 20.7% | 19.9% | 19.1% | 18.1% |
| 9.6% | 23.8% | 23.2% | 22.5% | 21.7% | 20.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$2.2B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.62
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Aflac (AFL) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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