Salesforce (CRM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 9 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.05), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CRM sits roughly in line with the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Jul 9, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.05-0.11 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 9 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.05 | -0.11 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.26% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 56% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.19% | +0.43pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 13 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.44 |
| Per-event yield | 0.25% |
| Annualized yield | 1.03% |
| Previously paid | Apr 9, 2026 ($0.44) |
| Last record date | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 23, 2026 |
CRM Dividend Capture History — Last 9 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Salesforce (CRM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.44 | -1.81% | $176.37 | 4 | yes | yes | -7.29% | +3.00% | |
| Q4 | $0.42 | 0.11% | $258.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.19% | +3.24% | |
| Q3 | $0.42 | 0.28% | $239.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.46% | +2.92% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | 0.78% | $262.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.01% | +3.20% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | -1.95% | $265.17 | 11 | no | yes | -12.22% | -6.60% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | 1.01% | $350.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.60% | -2.52% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | 0.32% | $255.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.66% | +7.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.50% | $257.37 | 13 | no | yes | -4.74% | -0.37% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -0.53% | $306.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.19% | -0.05% |
- +3.00%
- +3.24%
- +2.92%
- +3.20%
- -6.60%
- -2.52%
- +7.56%
- -0.37%
- -0.05%
CRM Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 6 | 67% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 11% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 22% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
CRM Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with CRM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $88.00
- After-tax dividend
- $57.20
- Slippage round-trip
- -$35.27
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$21.93
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.06%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~3.1%
CRM Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical CRM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
9 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CRM (9)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.13% | |
| -0.37% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.11% | |
| -6.60% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.25% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.