Extra Space Storage (EXR) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.41), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, EXR sits roughly in line with the Real Estate sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 14, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.41in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.41 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.38% | +0.49pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.67% | in line with sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 15 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $1.62 |
| Per-event yield | 1.15% |
| Annualized yield | 4.42% |
| Previously paid | Mar 16, 2026 ($1.62) |
| Last record date | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 31, 2026 |
EXR Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Extra Space Storage (EXR). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.62 | 0.28% | $141.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.71% | -5.60% | |
| Q4 | $1.62 | -0.74% | $134.48 | 15 | no | yes | -4.06% | -1.56% | |
| Q3 | $1.62 | -0.47% | $147.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.71% | -4.71% | |
| Q2 | $1.62 | -0.61% | $149.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.61% | +0.37% | |
| Q1 | $1.62 | -1.12% | $144.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.56% | +0.64% | |
| Q4 | $1.62 | -0.89% | $158.20 | >30 | no | no | -10.18% | -5.47% | |
| Q3 | $1.62 | -0.52% | $177.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.38% | +3.86% | |
| Q2 | $1.62 | -1.29% | $158.53 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.19% | +1.53% | |
| Q1 | $1.62 | -1.92% | $147.84 | 11 | no | yes | -7.23% | -2.62% | |
| Q4 | $1.62 | 1.25% | $146.00 | 1 | yes | yes | 1.18% | +8.03% | |
| Q3 | $0.61 | 0.28% | $124.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.81% | -1.16% | |
| Q3 | $1.01 | 0.32% | $151.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.52% | -1.31% | |
| Q2 | $1.62 | -1.11% | $145.89 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.95% | -0.73% | |
| Q1 | $1.62 | 0.30% | $157.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.84% | +1.71% | |
| Q4 | $1.50 | 2.43% | $158.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.48% | -7.02% | |
| Q3 | $1.50 | -1.77% | $194.50 | >30 | no | no | -14.67% | -8.09% | |
| Q2 | $1.50 | -0.53% | $159.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.74% | +4.20% | |
| Q1 | $1.50 | -0.26% | $196.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.72% | +0.46% | |
| Q4 | $1.25 | -0.88% | $212.85 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.06% | +1.94% | |
| Q3 | $1.25 | -0.35% | $186.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.13% | -2.93% |
- -5.60%
- -1.56%
- -4.71%
- +0.37%
- +0.64%
- -5.47%
- +3.86%
- +1.53%
- -2.62%
- +8.03%
- -1.16%
- -1.31%
- -0.73%
- +1.71%
- -7.02%
- -8.09%
- +4.20%
- +0.46%
- +1.94%
- -2.93%
EXR Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
EXR Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with EXR's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $324.00
- After-tax dividend
- $210.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$28.27
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$182.33
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.64%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~32.5%
EXR Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical EXR ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · EXR (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.67% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.94% | |
| -8.09% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +1.11% | |
| -2.62% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +0.91% | |
| -5.47% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +1.08% | |
| +1.10% | |
| -1.56% | |
| +1.15% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.